Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli election? [ resolves 2026-10-27 (84D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page sources (1) · stated precedence rule
gov.il committed source
recent wire items
- Likud hitting 35 seats seen as near-impossible at 2% 2% · $55K 24h
- 2% price means the market has all but eliminated the scenario of Likud capturing 35 or more Knesset seats in 2026.
- $55K in 24h is 32% of all-time volume, notable activity for a contract sitting at the probability floor.
- Paired with the 30%-priced Likud plurality contract, traders see Likud as a competitive force but far short of a dominant showing.
- Resolves on official Knesset seat tallies following the 2026 Israeli legislative election.
- Likud at 35-plus seats trades to zero through fresh volume 0% · $19K 24h
- Market has fully closed the door on Likud winning 35 or more seats, price sits at 0%, a near-certain 'No'.
- 24h volume of $19K is 29% of all-time handle, confirming active interest in locking in the outcome.
- Latest polling or coalition dynamics have apparently made a Likud supermajority-adjacent result mathematically implausible to traders.
- Resolves at the 2026 Israeli legislative election result; a zero price means the market is done debating this bracket.
- Fresh volume returns to Likud landing in the 20-24 seat range 37% · $18K 24h
- At 37%, the 20-24 seat bracket is the single most credible Likud outcome range the market is currently pricing.
- 24h volume of $18K equals 31% of all-time handle, and should be read alongside the concurrent 0% price on the 35+ bracket.
- Capital rotating out of higher seat-count brackets is likely landing here as polling narrows the expected Likud result.
- Resolves at the 2026 Israeli election; 37% makes this a contested outcome, not a consensus call.
- A Likud supermajority at 35-plus seats is ruled out at 0% 0% · $22K 24h
- Polymarket prices 0% on Likud winning 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli election, the market has effectively closed this outcome.
- $22K in 24h is 33% of all-time volume, suggesting traders are actively locking in the zero on this ceiling band.
- Zero pricing on the top band while lower bands attract real volume implies a strong polling or coalition signal has capped expectations.
- Resolution on official election results; 0% contracts can still attract volume as traders confirm or hedge a closed-out scenario.
- Likud landing 25-29 seats picks up heavy volume at 22% 22% · $48K 24h
- Polymarket prices 22% on Likud winning 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, below-median band outcome.
- $48K in 24h is 28% of all-time volume, a meaningful but not dominant share, suggesting steady fresh interest rather than panic.
- Simultaneous volume spikes across multiple Likud seat-band contracts suggest active cross-market positioning on election outcome distribution.
- Resolution depends on official 2026 Israeli election results; 22% implies traders see higher-seat bands as more likely.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-election-likud-of-seats/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-election-likud-of-seats |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-election-likud-of-seats") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
"slug": "israel-election-likud-of-seats",
"question": "Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"israel",
"likud",
"2026",
"legislative-seats"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 93659,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "gov.il",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "gov.il",
"url": "https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}