Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli election? [ resolves 2026-10-27 (96D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-24 | 2026-10-27 | 30.0% | $13 | $6.1K | A | 0x3135bd…064d | ||
| 25-29 | 2026-10-27 | 30.0% | $70 | $19K | A | 0xd63e1e…c3d7 | ||
| Fewer than 20 | 2026-10-27 | 20.2% | $71 | $23K | A | 0xb3c97c…dc86 | ||
| 30-34 | 2026-10-27 | 20.0% | — | $15K | A | 0xc85571…a1e4 | ||
| 35 or more | 2026-10-27 | 7.2% | — | $7.5K | A | 0x78b3ae…6aa7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- gov.il source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-election-likud-of-seats/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-election-likud-of-seats |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-election-likud-of-seats") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
"slug": "israel-election-likud-of-seats",
"question": "Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"israel",
"likud",
"2026",
"legislative-seats"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 71048,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "gov.il",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "gov.il",
"url": "https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}