Will Israel and Hamas reach a Ceasefire Phase II? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026) [ resolves 2025-11 – 2026-12 ]
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 2025-11-01 | 100.0% | — | $202K | C | 0xcf94a8…76eb | ||
| November 30 | 2025-12-01 | 100.0% | — | $373K | C | 0x50b1c8…fb3d | ||
| December 31 | 2026-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $364K | C | 0x377e97…c490 | ||
| January 31 | 2026-02-01 | 0.1% | — | $718K | C | 0x7ca440…b689 | ||
| February 28 | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 957645 | ||
| March 31 | 2026-04-01 | 0.3% | — | $599K | C | 0xcc8881…1418 | ||
| June 30 | 2026-07-02 | 0.1% | — | $513K | C | 0xdff611…06dd | ||
| July 31 | 2026-07-31 | — | $33 | $976 | C | 0x42e3c6…5cd8 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | — | $15K | C | 0xa6aa5a…56f2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official announcements from both Israel and Hamas from rules text · editorial
- credible media reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
"slug": "israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31",
"question": "Will Israel and Hamas reach a Ceasefire Phase II? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east-conflict",
"israel-hamas",
"ceasefire-negotiations",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2784918,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official announcements from both Israel and Hamas",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible media reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}