Israel x Iran permanent peace deal in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-12 ]
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, | 2026-04-30 | 0.0% | — | $158K | C | 0xe12f36…46fb | ||
| April 22, | 2026-05-31 | 0.0% | — | $157K | C | 0x9e564d…98d3 | ||
| May 31, | 2026-05-31 | 0.0% | $142K | $1.60M | C | 0x4d1ee0…ddb4 | ||
| June 30, | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $203K | $760K | C | 0x5efa97…5f3e | ||
| September 30, | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 2126516 | ||
| December 31, | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 2126517 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by September 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| NO | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-31 | 0% |
| NO | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-31 | 0% |
| NO | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-04-30 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (6 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Traders discount an Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30 19% · $203K 24h
- Polymarket at 19%, one-in-five odds of formal Israel-Iran peace deal by month-end.
- $202K in 24h is 27% of all-time volume; flows correlated with US-Iran deal contract (Spike 2).
- Likely moving in tandem with broader Gulf diplomacy narrative; bilateral deal seen as harder than US track.
- Resolves June 30; discount to US-Iran contract reflects additional bilateral complexity.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6BZBWX4DV3",
"slug": "israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",
"question": "Israel x Iran permanent peace deal in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east-conflict",
"israel-iran",
"peace-negotiations",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2677260,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}