Will Israel and Turkey have a military clash before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $255 | $311K | C | 0xe34a08…eea6 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 11%
- The Polymarket contract on an Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 sits at 11%, a long shot but not negligible.
- Trading volume on this contract surged 207 times day-over-day, the largest single-day volume spike in today's entire batch, signaling intense fresh attention following the Syria-Hezbollah-Turkey talks report.
- An 11% probability is consistent with elevated regional risk without the market treating a direct military clash as a base case.
- A companion Polymarket contract on the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by December 31 sits at 19%, indicating broad regional instability is priced across multiple markets.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-V8TMF1B4H1",
"slug": "israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-2027",
"question": "Will Israel and Turkey have a military clash before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"military-conflict",
"israel-turkey",
"2026",
"bilateral-tensions"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 310700,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}