Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved by the settlement date? [ resolves 2025-11 – 2026-07 ]
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 2025-11-01 | 100.0% | — | $33K | C | 0x538528…bbe0 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $50K | C | 0x6b81f8…dd20 | ||
| February 28 | 2026-02-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 1280207 | ||
| March 31 | 2026-04-01 | 0.2% | — | $719K | C | 0xd03fe9…f66e | ||
| May 31 | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $103K | C | 0x232ae0…059f | ||
| June 15 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $1.1K | $23K | C | 0xdbdcd6…e2d7 | ||
| June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $4.4K | $335K | C | 0x3f0bc2…1ff8 | ||
| July 31 | 2026-07-31 | 70.0% | $3.3K | $41K | C | 0xac1721…6021 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the government of Israel from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| closed | Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | — |
| closed | Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? | polymarket | 2026-04-01 | — |
| closed | Israeli parliament dissolved by February 28? | polymarket | 2026-02-28 | — |
| closed | Israeli parliament dissolved by December 31? | polymarket | 2026-01-01 | — |
| closed | Israeli parliament dissolved by October 31? | polymarket | 2025-11-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (7 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W69HG9C9G4",
"slug": "israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31",
"question": "Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved by the settlement date?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"israel",
"parliament-dissolution",
"knesset",
"government-formation",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1305209,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the government of Israel",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}