Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? [ resolves 2026-08-18 (26D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 10% | 2026-08-18 | 76.0% | $1.9K | $23K | A | 0xe9e713…30d0 | ||
| ≥ 10% | 2026-08-18 | 12.0% | $85 | $519 | A | 0x918367…7782 | ||
| ≥ 15% | 2026-08-18 | 9.0% | $85 | $695 | A | 0x520763…d092 | ||
| ≥ 20% | 2026-08-18 | 2.0% | $85 | $934 | A | 0x22df65…4151 | ||
| ≥ 25% | 2026-08-18 | 0.9% | $45 | $413 | A | 0x255f31…dc66 | ||
| ≥ 30% | 2026-08-18 | 1.6% | $85 | $451 | A | 0x357691…8cda |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- dos.fl.gov venue-listed
- Florida Department of State source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/james-fishback-vote-share-in-2026-florida-republican-governor-primary-20260701214154078/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/james-fishback-vote-share-in-2026-florida-republican-governor-primary-20260701214154078 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("james-fishback-vote-share-in-2026-florida-republican-governor-primary-20260701214154078") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3C6QVGS040",
"slug": "james-fishback-vote-share-in-2026-florida-republican-governor-primary-20260701214154078",
"question": "Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"florida-2026",
"republican-primary",
"vote-share",
"gubernatorial"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26006,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Florida Department of State",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "dos.fl.gov",
"url": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Florida Department of State",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}