Will Japan's core CPI year-over-year change in 2026 be positive? [ resolves 2027-01-22 (171D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1.9% | 2027-01-22 | 67.0% | $35 | $13K | A | 0x2582a4…c4ab | ||
| Between 2.0 and 2.4% | 2027-01-22 | 28.0% | $54 | $7.2K | A | 0xcb1b17…d858 | ||
| Between 2.5 and 2.9% | 2027-01-22 | 4.9% | $35 | $5.1K | A | 0x340ecf…be2a | ||
| Between 3.0 and 3.4% | 2027-01-22 | 1.9% | $266 | $1.0K | A | 0xb51461…ebca | ||
| Between 3.5 and 3.9% | 2027-01-22 | 0.1% | — | $800 | A | 0x2f8a22…95e0 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-01-22 | 0.1% | $35 | $991 | A | 0x0cc1e1…439b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen sources (3) · single authority
- stat.go.jp venue-listed
- Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ) from rules text · editorial
- SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/japan-core-cpi-yoy-in-2026-20260617224131789/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/japan-core-cpi-yoy-in-2026-20260617224131789 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("japan-core-cpi-yoy-in-2026-20260617224131789") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HN3LBZP4H6",
"slug": "japan-core-cpi-yoy-in-2026-20260617224131789",
"question": "Will Japan's core CPI year-over-year change in 2026 be positive?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"inflation",
"japan",
"cpi",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 27631,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "stat.go.jp",
"url": "https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}