Will Japan's GDP growth in Q2 2026 be positive on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis? [ resolves 2026-08-17 (13D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ -2.4% | 2026-08-17 | 1.5% | $5 | $1.4K | A | 0xd961b1…bb74 | ||
| ≥ -2% | 2026-08-17 | 4.0% | $5 | $2.4K | A | 0xb5a928…1b43 | ||
| ≥ -1.2% | 2026-08-17 | 0.8% | $5 | $2.0K | A | 0x762664…6e54 | ||
| ≥ -0.4% | 2026-08-17 | 11.0% | $5 | $1.7K | A | 0x629530…3cce | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2026-08-17 | 31.0% | $328 | $12K | A | 0x008273…ce9c | ||
| ≥ 1.2% | 2026-08-17 | 24.0% | $421 | $10K | A | 0xfcbef0…3977 | ||
| ≥ 2% | 2026-08-17 | 7.0% | $5 | $818 | A | 0xca6376…1057 | ||
| ≥ 2.8% | 2026-08-17 | 5.3% | $5 | $2.7K | A | 0xa713c7…255b | ||
| ≥ 3.6% | 2026-08-17 | 5.4% | $5 | $531 | A | 0x9a2b72…022e | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-08-17 | 5.9% | $5 | $306 | A | 0x67ba24…69b4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html sources (3) · single authority
- esri.cao.go.jp venue-listed
- esri.cao.go.jp venue-listed
- Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/japan-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-qoq-annualized/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/japan-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-qoq-annualized |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("japan-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-qoq-annualized") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
"slug": "japan-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-qoq-annualized",
"question": "Will Japan's GDP growth in Q2 2026 be positive on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"japan-economy",
"gdp-growth",
"q2-2026",
"economic-data",
"quarterly-metrics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 34887,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
"url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
"url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}