Will July inflation in the United States be measured as annual? [ resolves 2026-08-12 (20D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3.1% | 2026-08-12 | 1.2% | $357 | $4.2K | A | 0x761982…9283 | ||
| ≥ 3.2% | 2026-08-12 | 2.6% | $307 | $4.8K | A | 0xcd543e…b855 | ||
| ≥ 3.3% | 2026-08-12 | 29.0% | $2.6K | $20K | A | 0xcdee01…32ca | ||
| ≥ 3.4% | 2026-08-12 | 41.0% | $3.3K | $16K | A | 0x17a70e…6bc5 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-08-12 | 24.0% | $1.2K | $12K | A | 0xb3ea43…09c1 | ||
| ≥ 3.6% | 2026-08-12 | 1.9% | $402 | $3.8K | A | 0xc64aa1…0b90 | ||
| ≥ 3.7% | 2026-08-12 | 1.0% | $626 | $3.1K | A | 0x1a4f22…6944 | ||
| ≥ 3.8% | 2026-08-12 | 0.1% | $146 | $2.5K | A | 0x2b1618…2be8 | ||
| ≥ 3.9% | 2026-08-12 | 0.1% | $50 | $2.1K | A | 0x4e2794…f091 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-08-12 | 0.1% | $50 | $2.2K | A | 0x5aa7b0…c8ff | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-08-12 | 0.1% | $200 | $2.2K | A | 0xf005f5…e466 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-08-12 | 0.1% | $96 | $2.2K | A | 0xe056d0…5416 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/july-inflation-us-annual-20260714150613267/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/july-inflation-us-annual-20260714150613267 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("july-inflation-us-annual-20260714150613267") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TQPB2BXD33",
"slug": "july-inflation-us-annual-20260714150613267",
"question": "Will July inflation in the United States be measured as annual?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"inflation",
"us-economy",
"price-indices",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 74455,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bls.gov",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "bls.gov",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "BLS Consumer Price Index report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "BLS",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}