Will the July unemployment rate be below 4% by August 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-07 (3D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 3.9% | 2026-08-07 | 0.3% | — | $235 | A | 0xe8ee4e…7e98 | ||
| 4% | 2026-08-07 | 8.3% | $14 | $632 | A | 0xaf8f82…7425 | ||
| 4.1% | 2026-08-07 | 27.0% | $15 | $4.1K | A | 0x8ad42f…40cb | ||
| 4.2% | 2026-08-07 | 27.0% | $769 | $9.9K | A | 0x6a1866…a57e | ||
| 4.3% | 2026-08-07 | 39.0% | $531 | $14K | A | 0x781b1f…19de | ||
| 4.4% | 2026-08-07 | 8.5% | $123 | $1.5K | A | 0x6a325e…8fe3 | ||
| 4.5% | 2026-08-07 | 3.9% | $273 | $1.1K | A | 0xf7cafc…aa60 | ||
| 4.6% | 2026-08-07 | 4.4% | $125 | $970 | A | 0x0aad85…60fb | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2026-08-07 | 0.4% | — | $283 | A | 0x964fbf…5dbb |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm sources (3) · single authority
- bls.gov venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record from rules text · editorial
- Monthly Employment Situation Report from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/july-unemployment-rate-20260702221240753/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/july-unemployment-rate-20260702221240753 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("july-unemployment-rate-20260702221240753") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6",
"slug": "july-unemployment-rate-20260702221240753",
"question": "Will the July unemployment rate be below 4% by August 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"labor-market",
"unemployment",
"us-economic-data",
"monthly-indicator"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 32376,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bls.gov",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Monthly Employment Situation Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}