CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 3 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
December 31, 2026-12-31 18.0%
$48K
C 0x72f0b7…1c44
June 30, 2026-12-31 0.0%
$119K
C 0xc1a90c…7c45
March 31, 2026-12-31 0.0%
$96K
C 0xa4dc12…f6dc
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers uncommitted not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 3 markets · share this text
Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31 0%
NO Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31 0%
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TNM3W7MHZ5",
  "slug": "kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by",
  "question": "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "politics",
    "russian-politics",
    "chechen-republic",
    "leadership-change",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 3,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 262426,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 24,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "adversarial_ground_truth",
    "uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →