Will a Republican candidate win the Kansas Governor primary? [ resolved 2026-08-04 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 35 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Masterson | 2026-08-04 | 100.0% | $26 | $31K | A | 0x709f7a…2bdf | ||
| Jeff Colyer | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $26K | A | 0xaa25aa…5b17 | ||
| Joy Eakins | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $2.5K | A | 0x02685b…ebcd | ||
| Charlotte O’Hara | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $1.9K | A | 0xcca3ac…ac51 | ||
| Stacy Rogers | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $1.2K | A | 0x9b6e85…2d08 | ||
| Philip Sarnecki | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | $67 | $8.4K | A | 0xd482f1…1835 | ||
| Vicki Schmidt | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | $906 | $3.8K | A | 0x2885ee…08de | ||
| Scott Schwab | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $2.3K | A | 0x45c0fb…1288 | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfd63a6…f65f | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd4813c…ac9d | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd6aec3…7ff9 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xefcbb5…45b1 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8bdf1e…01f7 | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x726765…7250 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7f3982…c9ed | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa2b756…3e6c | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfb9c8e…fd7b | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfaf512…ab00 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2ef1a0…e6a2 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x557aae…6993 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0b6d1f…a050 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6750ea…6e41 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9b4b45…74ed | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfed7fd…094b | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x54b919…b3dc | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc9625c…a8be | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x23db08…cf95 | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8c1bb2…f418 | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x329622…f09d | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1c5086…5338 | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5f2a6d…3719 | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x56f959…74f0 | ||
| Candidate X | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2a2beb…94ab | ||
| Candidate Y | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xabd28a…f021 | ||
| Candidate Z | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x564280…dfee |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
Kansas Republican Party committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Charlotte O’Hara win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Stacy Rogers win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Joy Eakins win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will Vicki Schmidt win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Scott Schwab win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jeff Colyer win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Sarnecki Kansas GOP governor primary stays a long shot at 12% 12% · $11K 24h
- Polymarket prices Philip Sarnecki winning the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary at 12%, clear underdog against the field.
- 39% of all-time volume in 24h points to a sharp and sudden burst of interest in an otherwise thin Kansas primary market.
- Spike may reflect a new Sarnecki campaign development, endorsement, or polling data reaching traders before wider coverage.
- Resolves on the Kansas Republican gubernatorial primary result; low base price limits upside for contract holders.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kansas-governor-republican-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kansas-governor-republican-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kansas-governor-republican-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JJZDQB7K77",
"slug": "kansas-governor-republican-primary-winner",
"question": "Will a Republican candidate win the Kansas Governor primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"kansas",
"republican-primary",
"2026",
"us-state-races"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 35,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 76998,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Kansas Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Kansas Republican Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}