Kansas Senate Election Winner [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republicans | — | 62.0% | — | $24K | C | 0xb8b534…7743 | ||
| The Democrats | — | 38.0% | — | $13K | C | 0x460d39…adb3 | ||
| Person A | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcc732e…c313 | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3d8b6b…2036 | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x78e4d3…585a | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb52756…5038 | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf3c1fe…98da | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc96744…0691 | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb6febd…e9f6 | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x43ff30…3367 | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x42e621…2d79 | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa2afd2…cbbe | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0ec2d0…9eca |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
recent wire items
- Republican Kansas Senate odds hold at 67% 67% · $129K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 67% in Kansas, a moderate favorite in a traditionally safe red seat.
- 30% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, reflecting a meaningful reassessment of the race.
- Attention may reflect a competitive Democratic recruit or recent polling narrowing the gap.
- Resolves on Kansas 2026 general election results.
- Republicans hold the edge in Kansas Senate at 62% 62% · $136K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 62%, a clear but not decisive lean toward a GOP hold.
- 24h volume of $135K is 33% of all-time, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention on this race.
- Paired spike with the Democratic side (Spike 1) suggests the Kansas Senate is drawing contested two-sided flow.
- Resolves on 2026 Kansas Senate election outcome.
- Democrats pick up backing in Kansas Senate at 38% 38% · $110K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 38%, an underdog read, but well above a longshot.
- 36% of all-time volume printed in 24 hours, the highest all-time share across the Kansas pair.
- Coordinated surge alongside the GOP contract (Spike 0) implies new information or polling is driving two-sided re-pricing.
- Resolves on the 2026 Kansas Senate general election result.
- Republicans hold firm as Kansas Senate favorite 73% · $86K 24h
- Polymarket has Republicans winning the Kansas Senate seat at 73%, a solid but not locked-in lead.
- 24h volume of $86K represents 34% of all-time, a sharp single-session attention jump.
- Fresh volume into a race previously considered safe suggests new competitive information or polling is circulating.
- Resolves on the 2026 Kansas Senate general election result.
- Traders pile into Kansas Senate race with Republicans at 73% 73% · $85K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 73% to win the Kansas Senate seat, solid favorite but not a lock.
- $85K in 24h volume equals 34% of all-time contract volume, marking an outsized single-session surge.
- Spike likely follows a new poll, candidate filing deadline, or primary result sharpening the general-election picture.
- Contract resolves on the November 2026 Kansas Senate general election outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kansas-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kansas-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kansas-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-V8Y5SZ7SK0",
"slug": "kansas-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Kansas Senate Election Winner",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"kansas",
"senate",
"2026",
"us-midterms"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 37246,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}