Will the second-place party in the Kazakhstan Kurultai election receive fewer than 15% of the vote? [ resolves 2026-08-23 (31D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 34 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auyl | 2026-08-23 | 50.0% | $17K | $20K | C | 0x23c1cd…1cd1 | ||
| Respublica | 2026-08-23 | 20.0% | $25 | $2.6K | C | 0xf23506…2efc | ||
| Aq Jol | 2026-08-23 | 6.6% | $1.8K | $3.2K | C | 0xfc1fbe…d0ee | ||
| QHP | 2026-08-23 | 4.9% | $379 | $490 | C | 0x06f122…1fd8 | ||
| JSDP | 2026-08-23 | 4.3% | $244 | $1.4K | C | 0x1cdaba…a6fe | ||
| Adilet | 2026-08-23 | 1.1% | — | $624 | C | 0xf8108d…0444 | ||
| Baytaq | 2026-08-23 | 1.0% | — | $487 | C | 0x279406…8984 | ||
| Party A | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0c5959…11ed | ||
| Party B | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x39464b…37ee | ||
| Party C | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x149407…53b1 | ||
| Party D | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf73463…693f | ||
| Party E | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc981c5…a7ad | ||
| Party F | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2cc3ee…1ff5 | ||
| Party G | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2a8121…3397 | ||
| Party H | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0b69ad…515e | ||
| Party I | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1379c6…a5c8 | ||
| Party J | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6b4571…ea61 | ||
| Party K | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x886ffc…a6aa | ||
| Party L | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1d7305…2fad | ||
| Party M | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x057373…6399 | ||
| Party N | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x405fa3…c1e4 | ||
| Party O | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x83c8b1…d257 | ||
| Party P | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbea01e…1b1a | ||
| Party Q | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1ea5f2…fe3a | ||
| Party R | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xeadff4…886d | ||
| Party S | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x56bbd3…8a9e | ||
| Party T | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9728f5…085e | ||
| Party U | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x40212e…df99 | ||
| Party V | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9f4625…d7f6 | ||
| Party W | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x52a788…d28d | ||
| Party X | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xee1441…7d64 | ||
| Party Y | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa98f03…b88b | ||
| Party Z | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x19e2c1…a17f | ||
| Another party | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x863886…c840 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Kurultai of Kazakhstan are scheduled to take place on August 23, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-most number of seats in the Kurultai of Kazakhstan as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Kazakh government.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
- Kazakh government source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kazakhstan-kurultai-election-2nd-place-20260713225045611/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kazakhstan-kurultai-election-2nd-place-20260713225045611 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kazakhstan-kurultai-election-2nd-place-20260713225045611") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LMLGVHK197",
"slug": "kazakhstan-kurultai-election-2nd-place-20260713225045611",
"question": "Will the second-place party in the Kazakhstan Kurultai election receive fewer than 15% of the vote?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"kazakhstan",
"2026",
"kurultai",
"electoral-results"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 34,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 28993,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 46,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Kazakh government",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Kazakh government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}