Will the Nur Otan party win the most seats in the Kazakhstan Kurultai election? [ resolves 2026-08-23 (31D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 34 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adilet | 2026-08-23 | 99.4% | $16 | $3.3K | C | 0x997738…de71 | ||
| QHP | 2026-08-23 | 0.9% | $16 | $708 | C | 0x4a7779…5ac6 | ||
| Baytaq | 2026-08-23 | 0.8% | $16 | $835 | C | 0x8db09b…ac9d | ||
| Respublica | 2026-08-23 | 0.7% | $16 | $651 | C | 0x4ab78a…a2d3 | ||
| JSDP | 2026-08-23 | 0.7% | $16 | $1.9K | C | 0xc947df…c07d | ||
| Auyl | 2026-08-23 | 0.1% | $16 | $664 | C | 0x489c23…3774 | ||
| Aq Jol | 2026-08-23 | 0.1% | $16 | $2.0K | C | 0xd83138…d0df | ||
| Party A | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x648f0f…b912 | ||
| Party B | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xee4a2f…8ac7 | ||
| Party C | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x15b7e8…4422 | ||
| Party D | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xab99d5…cae3 | ||
| Party E | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x672efc…592c | ||
| Party F | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1a25ea…a943 | ||
| Party G | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x04a37d…e59e | ||
| Party H | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x18aa1b…a7f1 | ||
| Party I | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5c2420…cfd8 | ||
| Party J | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x00984f…a13f | ||
| Party K | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x91deaf…702b | ||
| Party L | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x863a48…cea4 | ||
| Party M | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5f50ee…fcc7 | ||
| Party N | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3a0a7e…3cb0 | ||
| Party O | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xeb75c3…ed83 | ||
| Party P | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6c7d35…7e7e | ||
| Party Q | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0d9d5e…55a7 | ||
| Party R | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd459a2…29dd | ||
| Party S | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x268e09…d3a6 | ||
| Party T | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x69741c…b2c1 | ||
| Party U | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x70e8a3…761c | ||
| Party V | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xaebd54…880c | ||
| Party W | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf3bad6…6210 | ||
| Party X | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x34afbf…dc91 | ||
| Party Y | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x538321…7a33 | ||
| Party Z | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8d9b94…d796 | ||
| Another party | 2026-08-23 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x17c13a…83f7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Kurultai of Kazakhstan are scheduled to take place on August 23, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kurultai of Kazakhstan as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Kazakh government.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
- Kazakh government source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kazakhstan-kurultai-election-party-winner-20260713224438118/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kazakhstan-kurultai-election-party-winner-20260713224438118 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kazakhstan-kurultai-election-party-winner-20260713224438118") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-X8XRN2CFC4",
"slug": "kazakhstan-kurultai-election-party-winner-20260713224438118",
"question": "Will the Nur Otan party win the most seats in the Kazakhstan Kurultai election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"kazakhstan",
"2026",
"party-performance",
"legislative-seats"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 34,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10016,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 36,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Kazakh government",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Kazakh government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}