Will Kim Jong Un no longer be the Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 4.9% | $62 | $190K | C | 0x9ed2a2…9f93 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Traders pile into Kim Jong Un exit bet at long-shot 6% 6% · $225K 24h
- Market prices only a 6% chance Kim Jong Un loses power by year-end, a deep long-shot read.
- 24h volume of $225K equals 52% of all-time handle, signaling a sharp spike in fresh attention.
- Surge likely driven by external intelligence reports or regional signals prompting speculative positioning.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; low price means most capital is landing on the 'No' side.
- Kim Jong Un exit by year-end stays a long shot at 5% 5% · $215K 24h
- Market prices only 5% odds on Kim Jong Un losing power by December 31, 2026, a near-dismissal of regime change.
- $215K traded in 24h is 51% of all-time volume on Polymarket, signaling an extraordinary single-session mobilization.
- Fresh attention at this scale typically precedes a credible intelligence signal or regional provocation, desks should monitor.
- Contract resolves December 31, 2026; current pricing implies the market is not yet buying any specific catalyst.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HR6HRVY940",
"slug": "kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-before-2027",
"question": "Will Kim Jong Un no longer be the Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"north-korea",
"leadership-succession",
"politics",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 190380,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}