Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by April 30, 2026? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-06 ]
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
polymarket 3 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026 | 2026-05-31 | 1.0% | — | $7.0K | C | 0x049136…adfe | ||
| Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 16.0% | — | $5.2K | C | 0xd35798…ff5f | ||
| Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by April 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.4% | — | $33K | C | 0xf82587…f54d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kimi-k3-released-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kimi-k3-released-by.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kimi-k3-released-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DYW729BW25",
"slug": "kimi-k3-released-by",
"question": "Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by April 30, 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"tech",
"language-models",
"moonshot-ai",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 45573,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}