CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Kraken have an initial public offering by 2026? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2027-01 ]

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 4 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
In 2025 2026-01-01 100.0%
$495K
C 0x5b7012…b458
By March 31, 2026 2026-04-01 0.1%
$546K
C 0x9b3c31…04aa
By June 30, 2026 2026-06-30 0.0%
C 1642124
By December 31, 2026 2027-01-01 34.0%
$119 $532K
C 0xced0cb…9e1f
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers uncommitted not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 4 markets · share this text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken (US-based cryptocurrency exchange) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Kraken to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If Kraken merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if Kraken completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above
sources (2)
  • official company announcements and credible news sources from rules text · editorial
  • a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
closed Kraken IPO by June 30, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-30
closed Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? polymarket 2026-04-01
closed Kraken IPO in 2025? polymarket 2026-01-01
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kraken-ipo-in-2025/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kraken-ipo-in-2025
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kraken-ipo-in-2025")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MQZ98PJT9",
  "slug": "kraken-ipo-in-2025",
  "question": "Will Kraken have an initial public offering by 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "kraken-ipo",
    "crypto-exchange",
    "public-markets",
    "2025-event",
    "us-finance"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1571765,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 54,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "official company announcements and credible news sources",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →