CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? [ resolves 2028-01-01 (544D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 36 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Gavin Newsom · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 88.0%
$40 $32K
C KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW
Andy Beshear · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 85.0%
$5.0K
C KX2028DRUN-28-ABES
Pete Buttigieg · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 84.0%
$6.7K
C KX2028DRUN-28-PBUT
Josh Shapiro · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 81.0%
$11 $5.8K
C KX2028DRUN-28-JSHA
Rahm Emanuel · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 79.0%
$13K
C KX2028DRUN-28-REMA
J.B. Pritzker · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 76.0%
$2 $5.7K
C KX2028DRUN-28-JPRI
Ro Khanna · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 68.0%
$14K
C KX2028DRUN-28-RKHA
Mark Kelly · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 66.0%
$11K
C KX2028DRUN-28-MKEL
Chris Murphy · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 66.0%
$839
C KX2028DRUN-28-CMUR
Cory Booker · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 63.0%
$26 $4.3K
C KX2028DRUN-2…OOK
Kamala Harris · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 61.0%
$7 $56K
C KX2028DRUN-28-KHAR
Mitch Landrieu · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 61.0%
$88
C KX2028DRUN-28-MLAN
Ruben Gallego · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 52.0%
$13K
C KX2028DRUN-28-RGAL
Wes Moore · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 51.0%
$1 $28K
C KX2028DRUN-28-WMOO
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 48.0%
$47 $37K
C KX2028DRUN-28-AOC
Jared Polis · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 46.0%
$0 $2.5K
C KX2028DRUN-28-JPOL
Jon Ossoff · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 46.0%
$11 $5.8K
C KX2028DRUN-28-JOSS
Elissa Slotkin · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 44.0%
$194 $3.8K
C KX2028DRUN-28-ESLO
Abigail Spanberger · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 33.0%
$4.6K
C KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA
Raphael Warnock · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 30.0%
$1.2K
C KX2028DRUN-28-RWAR
Phil Murphy · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 29.0%
$453
C KX2028DRUN-28-PMUR
Chris Van Hollen · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 29.0%
$721
C KX2028DRUN-28-CHOL
Roy Cooper · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 24.0%
$1.7K
C KX2028DRUN-28-RCOO
Stephen A. Smith · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 23.0%
$5 $6.6K
C KX2028DRUN-28-SAS
Gretchen Whitmer · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 22.0%
$7.2K
C KX2028DRUN-28-GWHI
Dean Phillips · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 22.0%
$1.2K
C KX2028DRUN-28-DPHI
John Fetterman · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 21.0%
$0 $766
C KX2028DRUN-28-JFET
Hunter Biden · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 19.0%
$157 $4.0K
C KX2028DRUN-28-HBID
Mikie Sherrill · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 19.0%
$171
C KX2028DRUN-28-MSHE
Jon Stewart · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 14.0%
$1 $1.8K
C KX2028DRUN-28-JSTE
James Talarico · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 14.0%
$1
C KX2028DRUN-28-JTAL
Mark Cuban · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 13.0%
$98 $1.8K
C KX2028DRUN-28-MCUB
Michelle Obama · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 7.0%
$2 $594
C KX2028DRUN-28-MOBA
Hillary Clinton · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 5.5%
$99
C KX2028DRUN-28-HCLI
Barack Obama · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 5.0%
$43
C KX2028DRUN-28-BOBA
Tim Walz · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 4.7%
$1.8K
C KX2028DRUN-28-TWAL
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff ABC not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 36 markets · share this text
If Cory Booker announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC"
sources (14)
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kx2028drun-28/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kx2028drun-28
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kx2028drun-28")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5H09B63413",
  "slug": "kx2028drun-28",
  "question": "Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-presidential-election-2028",
    "democratic-primary",
    "candidate-nomination",
    "politics-usa",
    "electoral-prediction"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 36,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 280717,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 72,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "ABC",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →