CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? [ resolves 2028-01-01 (544D) ]

kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 33 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
J.D. Vance · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 76.0%
$18K
C KX2028RRUN-28-JVAN
Ron DeSantis · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 65.0%
$18K
C KX2028RRUN-28-RDES
Marco Rubio · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 64.0%
$27 $20K
C KX2028RRUN-28-MRUB
Ted Cruz · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 63.0%
$0 $12K
C KX2028RRUN-28-TCRU
Tucker Carlson · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 52.0%
$18K
C KX2028RRUN-28-TUC
Josh Hawley · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 48.0%
$3.2K
C KX2028RRUN-28-JHAW
Thomas Massie · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 48.0%
$5 $5.4K
C KX2028RRUN-28-TMAS
Rand Paul · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 43.0%
$3.0K
C KX2028RRUN-28-RPAU
Glenn Youngkin · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 41.0%
$2.9K
C KX2028RRUN-28-GYOU
Marjorie Taylor Greene · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 38.0%
$14K
C KX2028RRUN-28-MTAY
Brian Kemp · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 33.0%
$200
C KX2028RRUN-28-BKEM
Nikki Haley · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 31.0%
$1.7K
C KX2028RRUN-28-NHAL
Tulsi Gabbard · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 25.0%
$1.5K
C KX2028RRUN-28-TGAB
Byron Donalds · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 24.0%
$74
C KX2028RRUN-28-BDON
Greg Abbott · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 23.0%
$1.5K
C KX2028RRUN-28-GABB
Steve Bannon · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 23.0%
$1.6K
C KX2028RRUN-28-STE
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 2028-01-01 22.0%
$7.3K
C KX2028RRUN-2…TJR
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 2028-01-01 21.0%
$1.9K
C KX2028RRUN-28-RFK
Matt Gaetz · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 21.0%
$296
C KX2028RRUN-28-MGAE
John McEntee · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 21.0%
$204
C KX2028RRUN-28-JMCE
Sarah Huckabee Sanders · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 20.0%
$826
C KX2028RRUN-28-SHS
Pete Hegseth · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 19.0%
$1.3K
C KX2028RRUN-28-PHEG
Erika Kirk · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 18.0%
$846
C KX2028RRUN-28-EKIR
Spencer Pratt · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 16.0%
$6
C KX2028RRUN-28-SPRA
Donald J. Trump · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 15.0%
$1 $1.5K
C KX2028RRUN-28-DJT
Jared Kushner · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 15.0%
$143
C KX2028RRUN-28-JKUS
Jeff Bezos · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 14.0%
$485
C KX2028RRUN-28-JBEZ
Gregory Bovino · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 14.0%
$8
C KX2028RRUN-28-GBOV
Vivek Ramaswamy · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 13.0%
$1.4K
C KX2028RRUN-28-VRAM
Katie Britt · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 13.0%
$22
C KX2028RRUN-28-KBRI
Elise Stefanik · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 11.0%
$88
C KX2028RRUN-28-ESTE
John Thune · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 9.7%
$40
C KX2028RRUN-28-JTHU
Elon Musk · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? 2028-01-01 6.7%
$0 $219
C KX2028RRUN-28-EMUS
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff ABC not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 33 markets · share this text
If J.D. Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC"
sources (14)
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kx2028rrun-28/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kx2028rrun-28
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kx2028rrun-28")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HZLRXQM5W7",
  "slug": "kx2028rrun-28",
  "question": "Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "2028-election",
    "republican-nomination",
    "us-politics",
    "presidential-race",
    "candidate-field"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 33,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 136724,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 78,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "ABC",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →