Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? [ resolves 2028-01-01 (577D) ]
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 31 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 76.0% | $263 | $18K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-JVAN | ||
| Marco Rubio · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 68.0% | $5 | $21K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-MRUB | ||
| Ted Cruz · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 63.0% | — | $12K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-TCRU | ||
| Ron DeSantis · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 54.0% | — | $14K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-RDES | ||
| Thomas Massie · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 49.0% | $33 | $5.3K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-TMAS | ||
| Glenn Youngkin · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 48.0% | — | $3.4K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-GYOU | ||
| Tucker Carlson · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 48.0% | $52 | $15K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-TUC | ||
| Josh Hawley · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 47.0% | — | $3.1K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-JHAW | ||
| Rand Paul · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 43.0% | — | $2.9K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-RPAU | ||
| Nikki Haley · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 38.0% | $76 | $2.0K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-NHAL | ||
| Brian Kemp · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 33.0% | — | $200 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-BKEM | ||
| Marjorie Taylor Greene · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 29.0% | — | $10K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-MTAY | ||
| Tulsi Gabbard · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 27.0% | — | $1.6K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-TGAB | ||
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 26.0% | — | $1.0K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-SHS | ||
| Steve Bannon · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 26.0% | $66 | $1.8K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-STE | ||
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 | 2028-01-01 | 25.0% | — | $2.2K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-RFK | ||
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 | 2028-01-01 | 24.0% | $4 | $7.9K | B | KX2028RRUN-2…TJR | ||
| Byron Donalds · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 24.0% | $20 | $74 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-BDON | ||
| Matt Gaetz · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 22.0% | — | $277 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-MGAE | ||
| Greg Abbott · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $1.2K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-GABB | ||
| Spencer Pratt · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $0 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-SPRA | ||
| Pete Hegseth · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 16.0% | $5 | $1.0K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-PHEG | ||
| Erika Kirk · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $685 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-EKIR | ||
| Jared Kushner · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 15.0% | $35 | $143 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-JKUS | ||
| Donald J. Trump · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $1.3K | B | KX2028RRUN-28-DJT | ||
| Katie Britt · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $22 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-KBRI | ||
| Elise Stefanik · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $88 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-ESTE | ||
| Jeff Bezos · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $230 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-JBEZ | ||
| John Thune · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 9.7% | — | $40 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-JTHU | ||
| Vivek Ramaswamy · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $750 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-VRAM | ||
| Elon Musk · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? | 2028-01-01 | 6.9% | — | $225 | B | KX2028RRUN-28-EMUS |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If J.D. Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kx2028rrun-28/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kx2028rrun-28.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kx2028rrun-28") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HZLRXQM5W7",
"slug": "kx2028rrun-28",
"question": "Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2028-presidential-election",
"republican-primary",
"us-politics",
"candidate-announcement",
"political-nominations"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 31,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 127009,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}