AAA national average gas price, November 3, 2026 [ resolves 2026-11-10 (98D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $2.5 | 2026-11-10 | 94.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….50 | ||
| ≥ $2.75 | 2026-11-10 | 97.0% | — | $5.1K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….75 | ||
| ≥ $3 | 2026-11-10 | 94.0% | — | $5.6K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….00 | ||
| ≥ $3.25 | 2026-11-10 | 78.0% | $6 | $13K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….25 | ||
| ≥ $3.5 | 2026-11-10 | 53.0% | $7 | $3.8K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….50 | ||
| ≥ $3.75 | 2026-11-10 | 34.0% | $613 | $8.8K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….75 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-11-10 | 18.0% | $266 | $3.0K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….00 | ||
| ≥ $4.25 | 2026-11-10 | 16.0% | $32 | $1.2K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….25 | ||
| ≥ $4.5 | 2026-11-10 | 9.0% | $100 | $642 | A | KXAAAGASED-2….50 | ||
| ≥ $4.75 | 2026-11-10 | 6.0% | $25 | $119 | A | KXAAAGASED-2….75 | ||
| ≥ $5 | 2026-11-10 | 5.0% | $31 | $272 | A | KXAAAGASED-2….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $2.50 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" sources (1) · single authority
AAA committed source
recent wire items
- Gas prices seen holding near $4.00 to $4.25 range Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices 99% on gas above $2.50, 89% above $4.00, but only 49% above $4.25, pinning the implied range at $4.00-$4.25.
- Surging fuel costs cited in the September CPI print are consistent with the ladder placing the median near $4.00-$4.25.
- Sharp drop from 89% at $4.00 to 49% at $4.25 marks the key resistance level the market assigns to pump prices.
- Resolution draws on AAA or EIA reported national average pump price; the $4.25 strike is the coin-flip level to watch.
- Gas prices seen near $4.25-4.50, fuel inflation story intact Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts market-implied average gas price in the $4.25-4.50 range: 90% above $4.00, 52% above $4.25, only 8% above $4.50.
- The September CPI print of 3.7%, driven by fuel, is consistent with the ladder clustering just above $4.25, not pricing a further surge past $4.50.
- The sharp drop from 52% at $4.25 to 8% at $4.50 marks $4.50 as a credible ceiling in current market pricing, despite ongoing diesel pressure.
- Resolution is via the named price benchmark in the Kalshi contract; the AAA average gas price series is the likely reference source.
- Gas prices near $4.25-$4.50 range fully priced in Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder pins implied average gas price in the $4.25-$4.50 range, with 50% probability at the $4.25 strike and only 13% above $4.50.
- September CPI print of 3.7% confirmed fuel as the primary driver; the ladder distribution is consistent with that narrative, not at odds with it.
- Trading volume surged 181x day-over-day on this contract, signaling sharp fresh attention following the CPI release.
- The $4.00 strike prices at 87%, meaning the market firmly rules out a return below $4.00 in the near term.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagased-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagased-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagased-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
"slug": "kxaaagased-26nov03",
"question": "AAA national average gas price, November 3, 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-gas-prices",
"2026-election",
"energy-commodities",
"us-economy",
"november-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 42422,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "AAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AAA",
"url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}