AAA average gas price, August 31, 2026 [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-09 ]
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.90?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $3.8 | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $1.6K | $6.4K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….80 | ||
| ≥ $2.5 | 2026-09-30 | 99.0% | $1 | $3.8K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….50 | ||
| ≥ $2.6 | 2026-09-30 | 99.0% | $1 | $2.3K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….60 | ||
| ≥ $2.7 | 2026-09-30 | 99.0% | $1 | $10K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….70 | ||
| ≥ $2.8 | 2026-09-30 | 99.0% | $1 | $7.3K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….80 | ||
| ≥ $2.9 | 2026-09-30 | 99.0% | $1 | $3.9K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….90 | ||
| ≥ $3 | 2026-09-30 | 99.0% | $1 | $4.5K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….00 | ||
| ≥ $3.1 | 2026-09-30 | 99.0% | $1 | $4.2K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….10 | ||
| ≥ $3.2 | 2026-09-30 | 99.0% | $1 | $5.0K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….20 | ||
| ≥ $3.3 | 2026-09-30 | 98.0% | $78 | $3.1K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….30 | ||
| ≥ $3.4 | 2026-09-30 | 93.0% | $458 | $6.4K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….40 | ||
| ≥ $3.5 | 2026-09-30 | 87.0% | $1.0K | $6.4K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….50 | ||
| ≥ $3.6 | 2026-09-30 | 84.0% | $531 | $5.1K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….60 | ||
| ≥ $3.7 | 2026-09-30 | 75.0% | $433 | $7.4K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….70 | ||
| ≥ $3.9 | 2026-09-30 | 50.0% | $2.0K | $7.5K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….90 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-09-30 | 28.0% | $731 | $5.2K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….00 | ||
| ≥ $4.1 | 2026-09-30 | 16.0% | $110 | $2.1K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….10 | ||
| ≥ $4.2 | 2026-09-30 | 5.0% | $39 | $550 | A | KXAAAGASM-26….20 | ||
| ≥ $4.3 | 2026-09-30 | 9.0% | $32 | $705 | A | KXAAAGASM-26….30 | ||
| ≥ $4.4 | 2026-09-30 | 6.0% | $17 | $527 | A | KXAAAGASM-26….40 | ||
| ≥ $4.5 | 2026-09-30 | 5.0% | $18 | $362 | A | KXAAAGASM-26….50 | ||
| ≥ $4.6 | 2026-09-30 | 4.0% | $4 | $61 | A | KXAAAGASM-26….60 | ||
| ≥ $4.7 | 2026-09-30 | 1.0% | $3 | $16 | A | KXAAAGASM-26….70 | ||
| ≥ $4.8 | 2026-09-30 | 2.0% | $7 | $14 | A | KXAAAGASM-26….80 | ||
| ≥ $4.9 | 2026-09-30 | 1.0% | $6 | $8 | A | KXAAAGASM-26….90 | ||
| ≥ $5 | 2026-09-30 | 1.0% | $3 | $20 | A | KXAAAGASM-26….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $2.50 on Aug 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" sources (1) · single authority
AAA committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.80? | kalshi | 2026-08-31 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Average gas prices staying above $3.80 priced at 98% 98% · $18K 24h
- Market prices average U.S. gas prices remaining above $3.80 at 98%, near-certain.
- $18K in 24h, 57% of all-time volume, signals a decisive surge in conviction on this contract.
- Activity likely follows weekly EIA price data or refinery/crude news keeping prices elevated.
- Resolves YES if the average U.S. gas price benchmark is recorded above $3.80 at resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagasm-26aug31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagasm-26aug31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagasm-26aug31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0WLSN5GTP4",
"slug": "kxaaagasm-26aug31",
"question": "AAA average gas price, August 31, 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-gas-prices",
"energy-commodities",
"2026",
"economic-indicators",
"consumer-prices"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 93262,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "AAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AAA",
"url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}