Average **gas prices** [ resolves 2026-08-30 (38D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $2.5 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….50 | ||
| ≥ $2.6 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $1.4K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….60 | ||
| ≥ $2.7 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….70 | ||
| ≥ $2.8 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….80 | ||
| ≥ $2.9 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $3.3K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….90 | ||
| ≥ $3 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $5.7K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….00 | ||
| ≥ $3.1 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $3.7K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….10 | ||
| ≥ $3.2 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $3.7K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….20 | ||
| ≥ $3.3 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $8.0K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….30 | ||
| ≥ $3.4 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $8.1K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….40 | ||
| ≥ $3.5 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $9.3K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….50 | ||
| ≥ $3.6 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $19K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….60 | ||
| ≥ $3.7 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $41K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….70 | ||
| ≥ $3.8 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | $7 | $85K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….80 | ||
| ≥ $3.9 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | $13 | $48K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….90 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | $10 | $54K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….00 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $3.2K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….02 | ||
| ≥ $4.04 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | $5 | $7.8K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….04 | ||
| ≥ $4.06 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $15K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….06 | ||
| ≥ $4.08 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | — | $15K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….08 | ||
| ≥ $4.1 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | $5.2K | $55K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….10 | ||
| ≥ $4.12 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | $6.0K | $8.4K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….12 | ||
| ≥ $4.14 | 2026-08-30 | 99.0% | $9.0K | $10K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….14 | ||
| ≥ $4.16 | 2026-08-30 | 97.0% | $2.6K | $5.8K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….16 | ||
| ≥ $4.18 | 2026-08-30 | 90.0% | $777 | $5.0K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….18 | ||
| ≥ $4.2 | 2026-08-30 | 74.0% | $4.8K | $43K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….20 | ||
| ≥ $4.22 | 2026-08-30 | 64.0% | $429 | $2.8K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….22 | ||
| ≥ $4.24 | 2026-08-30 | 49.0% | $1.0K | $2.2K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….24 | ||
| ≥ $4.26 | 2026-08-30 | 36.0% | $528 | $1.0K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….26 | ||
| ≥ $4.28 | 2026-08-30 | 20.0% | $188 | $351 | A | KXAAAGASM-26….28 | ||
| ≥ $4.3 | 2026-08-30 | 14.0% | $523 | $5.4K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….30 | ||
| ≥ $4.4 | 2026-08-30 | 4.0% | $72 | $2.4K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….40 | ||
| ≥ $4.5 | 2026-08-30 | 2.0% | $68 | $1.0K | A | KXAAAGASM-26….50 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $2.50 on Jul 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" sources (1) · single authority
- AAA source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Buyers back the gas-above-$4.00 contract at near-certainty 99% · $27K 24h
- Kalshi prices average US gas above $4.00 at 99%, the round-number floor treated as no contest.
- 24h volume $27K is 33% of all-time; lower concentration suggests this contract has older, deeper liquidity.
- The $4.00 level is the widest psychological threshold in the ladder and garners the most historical trading.
- 99% across $4.00, $4.02, and $4.04 strikes paints a consistent picture of elevated pump prices.
- Fresh volume backs gas prices holding above $4.04 99% · $25K 24h
- Kalshi prices average US gas above $4.04 at 99%, same near-certainty as adjacent strikes.
- 24h volume $25K is 58% of all-time; slightly less concentrated than $4.02 and $4.00 contracts.
- The $4.04 strike still comfortably inside current national average, driving the 99% read.
- Part of a ladder of Kalshi gas contracts all clearing 99% simultaneously.
- Gas prices staying above $4.02 draws near-certain odds 99% · $22K 24h
- Kalshi prices average US gas above $4.02 at 99%, market treats this as a foregone conclusion.
- 24h volume $22K is 71% of all-time, indicating fresh late-cycle positioning on a near-expired contract.
- Current pump prices running well above the $4.02 threshold make this essentially a cash collection.
- Resolution tied to next EIA weekly average print.
- Heavy trading tests the $4.06 gas threshold at 90% odds 90% · $15K 24h
- Kalshi prices average US gas above $4.06 at 90%, first strike in the ladder where meaningful doubt appears.
- 24h volume $15K is 38% of all-time; the contract has more historical depth than the tighter strikes.
- The 10% miss probability at $4.06 marks the market's credible upper boundary for the current price cycle.
- Contrast with 99% at $4.04 makes $4.06 the key inflection point across the entire gas-price ladder.
- Gas prices above $4.08 priced as certain 99% · $16K 24h
- Kalshi prices average gas above $4.08 at 99%, even the higher threshold is treated as breached.
- 33% of all-time volume landed in 24h, consistent with end-of-life settlement activity.
- Observed pump-price data above both the $4.04 and $4.08 levels is driving near-certain pricing on both contracts simultaneously.
- Resolution imminent; volume is settlement arbitrage, not a new directional signal on energy markets.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagasm-26jul31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagasm-26jul31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagasm-26jul31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9BFFMNBK34",
"slug": "kxaaagasm-26jul31",
"question": "Average **gas prices**",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-gas-prices",
"energy-commodities",
"economic-indicators",
"july-2026",
"price-threshold"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 480685,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "AAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AAA",
"url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}