National average gas price, December 31, 2026 [ resolves 2027-01 – 2027-01 ]
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $4 | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $319 | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….00 | ||
| ≥ $4.2 | 2027-01-07 | 98.0% | — | $6.5K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….20 | ||
| ≥ $4.4 | 2027-01-07 | 99.0% | — | $6.9K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….40 | ||
| ≥ $4.6 | 2027-01-07 | 51.0% | $3.9K | $39K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….60 | ||
| ≥ $4.8 | 2027-01-07 | 35.0% | $6.9K | $38K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….80 | ||
| ≥ $5 | 2027-01-07 | 33.0% | $591 | $28K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….00 | ||
| ≥ $5.2 | 2027-01-07 | 21.0% | $1.4K | $15K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….20 | ||
| ≥ $5.4 | 2027-01-07 | 15.0% | $929 | $8.8K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….40 | ||
| ≥ $5.6 | 2027-01-07 | 16.0% | $112 | $11K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….60 | ||
| ≥ $5.8 | 2027-01-07 | 11.0% | $112 | $6.3K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….80 | ||
| ≥ $6 | 2027-01-07 | 10.0% | $1.6K | $8.4K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….00 | ||
| ≥ $6.2 | 2027-01-07 | 7.0% | $728 | $2.2K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….20 | ||
| ≥ $6.4 | 2027-01-07 | 4.0% | $179 | $1.1K | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….40 | ||
| ≥ $6.6 | 2027-01-07 | 5.0% | $145 | $660 | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….60 | ||
| ≥ $6.8 | 2027-01-07 | 7.0% | $138 | $879 | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….80 | ||
| ≥ $7 | 2027-01-07 | 4.0% | $58 | $626 | A | KXAAAGASMAX-….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.20 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" sources (1) · single authority
- AAA source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2027-01-07 | 98% |
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2027-01-07 | 99% |
| closed | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Gas above $4.60 by year-end fractures below even odds Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder shows 48% probability gas exceeds $4.60 by year-end, with probabilities declining steadily to 6% above $7.00.
- Gas topping $4 now does not yet push the market to favor sustained above-$4.60 pricing by December; the contract sits nearly at even odds.
- The $82 WTI print is a live input: further oil price gains would shift the distribution rightward, but the current ladder reflects uncertainty rather than conviction.
- Resolution is based on the national average gas price at Dec 31, 2026; seasonal demand and geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz (see Iran wires) are key drivers.
- Gas prices above $4.60 to $4.80 by year-end holds as market midpoint Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices year-end gas above $4.00 at 99% but splits near $4.60-$4.80, implying a market consensus range around those levels.
- May CPI's energy-driven spike to 4.2% is consistent with the ladder showing only 35% above $4.80, suggesting markets see the spike as partially but not fully persistent.
- The Iran ceasefire and Hormuz reopening provide a potential downside catalyst for gas prices, which the sharp ladder drop above $4.80 may partially reflect.
- Resolution is via measured average gas price data by December 31; the specific average methodology and data source determine exact settlement.
- Gas above $4.00 by year-end nears full pricing despite inflation pain Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies average US gas price near $4.60-$4.80 by year-end, with 99% above $4.00 but only 35% above $4.80.
- The near-certain $4.00 floor is consistent with the news that May consumer prices hit a three-year high driven by energy.
- The sharp drop from 51% above $4.60 to 33% above $5.00 marks the key market conviction boundary for sustained high prices.
- The Iran peace deal trajectory is a direct cross-market factor: a signed deal could push oil lower and soften gas price expectations toward the lower end of the implied range.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagasmax-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagasmax-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagasmax-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
"slug": "kxaaagasmax-26dec31",
"question": "National average gas price, December 31, 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-gas-prices",
"energy-commodities",
"inflation-impact",
"2026",
"price-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 173015,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "AAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AAA",
"url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}