Will the average gas price in California exceed a specific threshold in 2024? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (203D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 6.00 | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $4.7K | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….00 | ||
| < 6.20 | 2027-01-01 | 85.0% | $203 | $5.5K | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….20 | ||
| < 6.40 | 2027-01-01 | 73.0% | $544 | $3.5K | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….40 | ||
| < 6.60 | 2027-01-01 | 60.0% | $284 | $3.1K | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….60 | ||
| < 7.20 | 2027-01-01 | 59.0% | $62 | $6.9K | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….20 | ||
| < 7.00 | 2027-01-01 | 54.0% | $114 | $6.1K | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….00 | ||
| < 6.80 | 2027-01-01 | 34.0% | $4 | $2.8K | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….80 | ||
| < 7.40 | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $57 | $1.9K | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….40 | ||
| < 7.60 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….60 | ||
| < 7.80 | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $404 | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….80 | ||
| < 8.00 | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | $0 | $559 | A | KXAAAGASMAXC….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If average regular gas prices for California are strictly greater than $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-12. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-X46S523RK2",
"slug": "kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31",
"question": "Will the average gas price in California exceed a specific threshold in 2024?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"california-gas-prices",
"energy-commodities",
"price-prediction",
"us-regional-economics",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 37423,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}