Will gas prices in Texas reach a specific high level this year? [ resolves 2027-01 – 2027-01 ]
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 3.80 | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $6.1K | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….80 | ||
| < 4.00 | 2027-01-07 | 99.0% | — | $6.3K | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….00 | ||
| < 4.20 | 2027-01-07 | 55.0% | $370 | $4.3K | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….20 | ||
| < 4.40 | 2027-01-07 | 25.0% | $18 | $2.4K | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….40 | ||
| < 4.60 | 2027-01-07 | 14.0% | $95 | $1.1K | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….60 | ||
| < 5.60 | 2027-01-07 | 10.0% | — | $75 | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….60 | ||
| < 4.80 | 2027-01-07 | 8.0% | $78 | $407 | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….80 | ||
| < 5.00 | 2027-01-07 | 5.0% | $37 | $233 | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….00 | ||
| < 5.20 | 2027-01-07 | 4.0% | $32 | $155 | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….20 | ||
| < 5.40 | 2027-01-07 | 4.0% | $26 | $141 | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….40 | ||
| < 5.80 | 2027-01-07 | 2.0% | $8 | $21 | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….80 | ||
| < 6.00 | 2027-01-07 | 2.0% | $4 | $31 | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly greater than $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" sources (1) · single authority
- AAA source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2027-01-07 | 99% |
| closed | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S7CTVTK5B0",
"slug": "kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31",
"question": "Will gas prices in Texas reach a specific high level this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"gas-prices",
"texas",
"energy-commodities",
"price-forecast",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21080,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "AAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AAA",
"url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}