Average **gas prices** [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-08 ]
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.140?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $4.11 | 2026-07-27 | 0.0% | $3.0K | $3.1K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…110 | ||
| ≥ $3.96 | 2026-08-03 | 99.0% | $15 | $2.1K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…960 | ||
| ≥ $3.98 | 2026-08-03 | 99.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…980 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-08-03 | 99.0% | — | $7.0K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…000 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-08-03 | 99.0% | $193 | $8.2K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…020 | ||
| ≥ $4.04 | 2026-08-03 | 99.0% | — | $13K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…040 | ||
| ≥ $4.06 | 2026-08-03 | 99.0% | — | $15K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…060 | ||
| ≥ $4.08 | 2026-08-03 | 99.0% | $3.1K | $34K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…080 | ||
| ≥ $4.1 | 2026-08-03 | 99.0% | $17K | $28K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…100 | ||
| ≥ $4.12 | 2026-08-03 | 88.0% | $14K | $30K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…120 | ||
| ≥ $4.13 | 2026-08-03 | 78.0% | $122 | $122 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…130 | ||
| ≥ $4.14 | 2026-08-03 | 54.0% | $3.7K | $10K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…140 | ||
| ≥ $4.15 | 2026-08-03 | 58.0% | $1.5K | $1.6K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…150 | ||
| ≥ $4.16 | 2026-08-03 | 32.0% | $3.6K | $6.2K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…160 | ||
| ≥ $4.18 | 2026-08-03 | 9.0% | $1.2K | $1.5K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…180 | ||
| ≥ $4.2 | 2026-08-03 | 1.0% | $124 | $158 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…200 | ||
| ≥ $4.22 | 2026-08-03 | 1.0% | $140 | $227 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…220 | ||
| ≥ $4.24 | 2026-08-03 | 1.0% | $73 | $179 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…240 | ||
| ≥ $4.26 | 2026-08-03 | 1.0% | $0 | $119 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…260 | ||
| ≥ $4.28 | 2026-08-03 | 2.0% | — | $25 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…280 | ||
| ≥ $4.3 | 2026-08-03 | 3.0% | $1 | $72 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…300 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.960 on Jul 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" sources (1) · single authority
- AAA source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.110? | kalshi | 2026-07-27 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Gas above $4.110 holds at 80% as traders back the threshold 80% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi prices average gas above $4.110 at 80%, a strong lean, but 20% residual uncertainty remains.
- $18K in 24h is 67% of all-time volume, the highest lifetime-share of any spike today, on a thin contract.
- Paired with the $4.10 contract at 98%, the spread reveals traders are pricing genuine uncertainty in the 1-cent band.
- The $4.110 threshold is the live decision point; this is where new information about pump prices will move odds.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagasw-26jul27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagasw-26jul27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagasw-26jul27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7BTG22H1X4",
"slug": "kxaaagasw-26jul27",
"question": "Average **gas prices**",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"gas-prices",
"us-economy",
"weekly-resolution",
"energy-commodities",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 163562,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "AAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AAA",
"url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}