ADP employment change, July 2026 [ resolves 2026-09-05 (32D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADP employment change in Jul 2026 | 2026-09-05 | 98.0% | $10 | $1.4K | A | KXADP-26JUL-…000 | ||
| ADP employment change in Jul 2026 | 2026-09-05 | 93.0% | $144 | $929 | A | KXADP-26JUL-T0 | ||
| ADP employment change in Jul 2026 | 2026-09-05 | 87.0% | $4 | $991 | A | KXADP-26JUL-T25000 | ||
| ADP employment change in Jul 2026 | 2026-09-05 | 70.0% | $41 | $1.1K | A | KXADP-26JUL-T50000 | ||
| ADP employment change in Jul 2026 | 2026-09-05 | 35.0% | $5 | $624 | A | KXADP-26JUL-T75000 | ||
| ADP employment change in Jul 2026 | 2026-09-05 | 20.0% | $17 | $198 | A | KXADP-26JUL-…000 | ||
| ADP employment change in Jul 2026 | 2026-09-05 | 5.0% | — | $5 | A | KXADP-26JUL-…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ADP | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the ADP Employment Change in Jul 2026 is above -25000, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ADP" sources (2) · single authority
- ADP source of record venue-listed
- ADP Employment Change from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxadp-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxadp-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxadp-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5NXN7ZTR53",
"slug": "kxadp-26jul",
"question": "ADP employment change, July 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"adp-employment",
"labor-economics",
"monthly-jobs",
"2026",
"macroeconomic-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5229,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ADP",
"resolution_source_url": "https://adpemploymentreport.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ADP",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ADP",
"url": "https://adpemploymentreport.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ADP Employment Change",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}