ADP employment change, May 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-03 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADP employment change in May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | — | $575 | A | KXADP-26MAY-…000 | ||
| ADP employment change in May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | — | $276 | A | KXADP-26MAY-T0 | ||
| ADP employment change in May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $54 | $454 | A | KXADP-26MAY-T25000 | ||
| ADP employment change in May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $5 | $1.1K | A | KXADP-26MAY-T50000 | ||
| ADP employment change in May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $127 | $2.3K | A | KXADP-26MAY-T75000 | ||
| ADP employment change in May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $255 | $2.6K | A | KXADP-26MAY-…000 | ||
| ADP employment change in May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXADP-26MAY-…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ADP | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the ADP Employment Change in May 2026 is above -25000, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ADP" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | ADP employment change in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | ADP employment change in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | ADP employment change in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | ADP employment change in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | ADP employment change in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | ADP employment change in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| NO | ADP employment change in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (7 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxadp-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxadp-26may |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxadp-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LKXDYDS459",
"slug": "kxadp-26may",
"question": "ADP employment change, May 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"adp-employment",
"monthly-jobs",
"us-labor",
"economic-indicator",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8499,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ADP",
"resolution_source_url": "https://adpemploymentreport.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}