Will Todd Blanche be confirmed? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2027-01 ]
Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | 2026-06-08 | 0.7% | — | $13 | A | KXAGCONF-26-JUN01 | ||
| Jun 15, 2026 | 2026-06-22 | 2.9% | — | $78 | A | KXAGCONF-26-JUN15 | ||
| Jul 1, 2026 | 2026-07-08 | 0.7% | — | $41 | A | KXAGCONF-26-JUL01 | ||
| Sep 1, 2026 | 2026-08-08 | 100.0% | $8.4K | $83K | A | KXAGCONF-26J…P01 | ||
| Aug 1, 2026 | 2026-08-08 | 0.3% | — | $111 | A | KXAGCONF-26-AUG01 | ||
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026-10-08 | 93.0% | $5.5K | $31K | A | KXAGCONF-26J…T01 | ||
| Nov 1, 2026 | 2026-11-08 | 92.0% | $217 | $13K | A | KXAGCONF-26J…V01 | ||
| Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 96.0% | $1.2K | $24K | A | KXAGCONF-26J…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | U.S. Senate | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Trump's first announced Attorney General pick is the first person confirmed as Attorney General before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Senate" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
U.S. Senate committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | by 2026-08-08 | 0% |
| YES | Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-08 | 100% |
| NO | Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 1% |
| NO | Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Jun 15, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-15 | 3% |
| NO | Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Jun 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Odds hold firm on Trump's AG pick getting confirmed 99% · $67K 24h
- Kalshi prices confirmation of Trump's first AG pick at 99%, near-certain in the market's view.
- 24h volume of $67K is 32% of all-time, reflecting fresh conviction rather than residual noise.
- Surge suggests traders see little remaining uncertainty as the Senate vote approaches.
- Resolves upon Senate confirmation vote completion.
- Todd Blanche Senate confirmation stays near 65% Kalshi 65%
- The Kalshi contract on Todd Blanche being confirmed as Attorney General is priced at 65%, reflecting a favored but uncertain outcome.
- Committee advancement is the key threshold news, but the 'hanging by a thread' framing in CNN's reporting is consistent with the 35% probability of failure still priced in.
- A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-GMWVVJJ4S2) implies a final vote count in the 49-50 range, with only 47% above 50 votes, underscoring how tight the floor count appears.
- Resolves via U.S. Senate vote; the ladder's implied margin of 49-50 votes explains why the confirmation contract has not moved to the high 70s or above despite committee passage.
- Todd Blanche confirmation stays heavily favored at 80% Kalshi 80%
- Kalshi puts 80% odds on Todd Blanche being confirmed as U.S. Attorney General.
- Blanche's committee advancement is consistent with the 80% probability; the market had already assigned him heavy-favorite status ahead of the vote.
- The Kalshi vote-count ladder (CM-EVT-GMWVVJJ4S2) implies a final tally in the 50-51 senator range: 56% above 50, but only 14% above 51, indicating a narrow confirmation margin.
- Blanche's formal rescission of a prior position on Trump's tax audit immunity, reported in Story 16, appears to have been part of the deal to secure marginal Republican votes consistent with the implied thin margin.
- Buyers back Trump AG confirmation at 76% 76% · $17K 24h
- At 76%, the market gives the nominee a clear but not certain path to Senate confirmation.
- $16.8K in 24h equals 27% of all-time volume, a meaningful single-session concentration.
- Senate Judiciary Committee activity or a scheduled confirmation vote likely triggered fresh positioning.
- Resolves on Senate confirmation of Trump's first announced Attorney General pick.
- Todd Blanche Senate confirmation stays favored at 76 percent Kalshi 76%
- Kalshi prices Blanche confirmation at 76%, a clear but not overwhelming majority, resolves via U.S. Senate vote.
- Blanche's rescission of the fund was a direct concession to Senators Thom Tillis and John Cornyn, removing the primary stated obstacle to their support.
- The companion Kalshi vote-count ladder (CM-EVT-GMWVVJJ4S2) pins implied vote total at 49-50, consistent with a narrow but successful confirmation.
- Kalshi resolves via the official U.S. Senate confirmation vote; failure to hold the 50-vote floor would settle the contract NO.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxagconf-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxagconf-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxagconf-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NY76DC3G68",
"slug": "kxagconf-26",
"question": "Will Todd Blanche be confirmed?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-attorney-general",
"trump-administration",
"senate-confirmation",
"2026",
"judicial-nominations"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 151836,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "U.S. Senate",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Senate",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "U.S. Senate",
"url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}