Federal agencies cut by DOGE, through July 4, 2026 [ resolved 2026-07-04 ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DOGE cut at least 5 agencies | 2026-07-04 | 0.0% | — | $1.8K | B | KXAGENCIES-26-5 | ||
| 10 | 2026-07-04 | 0.0% | — | $2.4K | B | KXAGENCIES-26-10 | ||
| 20 | 2026-07-04 | 0.0% | — | $1.0K | B | KXAGENCIES-26-20 | ||
| 30 | 2026-07-04 | 0.0% | — | $159 | B | KXAGENCIES-26-30 | ||
| 50 | 2026-07-04 | 0.0% | — | $133 | B | KXAGENCIES-26-50 | ||
| 100 | 2026-07-04 | 0.0% | — | $195 | B | KXAGENCIES-26-100 | ||
| 200 | 2026-07-04 | 0.0% | — | $6 | B | KXAGENCIES-26-200 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Register | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If there are more than 5 fewer federal agencies (as of Jan 16, 2025) on July 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Clarification (6/13/25 at 3:15am ET): he market resolves based on the count of the reduction in federal agencies. The value of "441" agencies on the Federal Register has not been properly updated. While we will reference the Federal Register's list, we will exclude defunct agencies from our final count.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Register" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Federal Register source of record venue-listed
- Federal Register's list from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will DOGE cut at least 5 agencies? | kalshi | 2026-07-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will DOGE cut at least 10 agencies? | kalshi | 2026-07-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will DOGE cut at least 20 agencies? | kalshi | 2026-07-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will DOGE cut at least 30 agencies? | kalshi | 2026-07-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will DOGE cut at least 50 agencies? | kalshi | 2026-07-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will DOGE cut at least 100 agencies? | kalshi | 2026-07-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will DOGE cut at least 200 agencies? | kalshi | 2026-07-04 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (7 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxagencies-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxagencies-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxagencies-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NXN860J0R1",
"slug": "kxagencies-26",
"question": "Federal agencies cut by DOGE, through July 4, 2026",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-administration",
"government-restructuring",
"doge-department",
"federal-agencies",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5715,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 70,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Register",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Register",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Register",
"url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Register's list",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}