Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public… | 2027-01-01 | 47.0% | — | $5.4K | C | KXAINEURALESE-27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Verge | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If an AI model using neuralese recurrence is first released to the public before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Verge" sources (11)
- The Verge venue-listed
- official AI company blogs venue-listed
- TechCrunch venue-listed
- VentureBeat venue-listed
- Ars Technica venue-listed
- GitHub repositories with model implementations venue-listed
- Hugging Face model cards venue-listed
- arXiv preprints with functioning code repositories venue-listed
- official announcements from AI research organizations and companies venue-listed
- MIT Technology Review venue-listed
- peer-reviewed publications in recognized AI conferences and journals venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaineuralese-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaineuralese-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaineuralese-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BX1MNL6WD1",
"slug": "kxaineuralese-27",
"question": "Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-model-release",
"neuralese-recurrence",
"public-availability",
"2027",
"ai-architecture"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5369,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 32,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Verge",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.theverge.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Verge",
"url": "https://www.theverge.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official AI company blogs",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "TechCrunch",
"url": "https://techcrunch.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "VentureBeat",
"url": "https://venturebeat.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Ars Technica",
"url": "https://arstechnica.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "GitHub repositories with model implementations",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Hugging Face model cards",
"url": "https://huggingface.co/models",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "arXiv preprints with functioning code repositories",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official announcements from AI research organizations and companies",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MIT Technology Review",
"url": "https://www.technologyreview.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "peer-reviewed publications in recognized AI conferences and journals",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}