How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries? [ resolves 2026-12-15 (162D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at… | 2026-12-15 | 99.0% | — | $2.0K | C | KXAIPACLOSEP…-T1 | ||
| Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at… | 2026-12-15 | 99.0% | — | $11K | C | KXAIPACLOSEP…-T3 | ||
| Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at… | 2026-12-15 | 72.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXAIPACLOSEP…-T5 | ||
| 10 | 2026-12-15 | 25.0% | — | $526 | C | KXAIPACLOSEP…T10 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Endorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the time of the primary (e.g., candidates who are retiring, running for another office, deceased, or otherwise marked as non-donatable on the page — such as Cory Booker — are excluded). "Primary" includes runoffs and top-two/jungle primaries (e.g., California), and any election titled a primary. A candidate who withdraws before the primary is not counted as a loss; a candidate who advances past a top-two primary and then withdraws is counted as a loss. Only primaries held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 are included.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (2)
- the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed
- AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/) from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 1 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-12-15 | 99% |
| YES | Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 3 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-12-15 | 99% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaipacloseprimary-26sep16/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaipacloseprimary-26sep16 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaipacloseprimary-26sep16") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CYRWXHCJ44",
"slug": "kxaipacloseprimary-26sep16",
"question": "How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"primary-elections",
"aipac",
"2026",
"candidate-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15418,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}