Will the US airline fares Consumer Price Index increase for July? [ resolves 2026-08-19 (27D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 304 | 2026-08-19 | 88.0% | — | $117 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…304 | ||
| > 305 | 2026-08-19 | 95.0% | — | $296 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…305 | ||
| > 306 | 2026-08-19 | 91.0% | — | $560 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…306 | ||
| > 307 | 2026-08-19 | 81.0% | — | $484 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…307 | ||
| > 308 | 2026-08-19 | 75.0% | — | $542 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…308 | ||
| > 309 | 2026-08-19 | 72.0% | — | $543 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…309 | ||
| > 310 | 2026-08-19 | 64.0% | — | $536 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…310 | ||
| > 311 | 2026-08-19 | 59.0% | — | $348 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…311 | ||
| > 312 | 2026-08-19 | 68.0% | — | $396 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…312 | ||
| > 313 | 2026-08-19 | 50.0% | — | $308 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…313 | ||
| > 314 | 2026-08-19 | 46.0% | — | $336 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…314 | ||
| > 315 | 2026-08-19 | 40.0% | — | $216 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…315 | ||
| > 316 | 2026-08-19 | 36.0% | — | $208 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…316 | ||
| > 317 | 2026-08-19 | 32.0% | — | $155 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…317 | ||
| > 318 | 2026-08-19 | 7.0% | — | $19 | A | KXAIRFARECPI…318 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 is above 304ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market uses FRED series CUSR0000SETG01: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average, which is published monthly and is seasonally adjusted.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index source of record venue-listed
- FRED series CUSR0000SETG01: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxairfarecpi-26aug12/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxairfarecpi-26aug12 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxairfarecpi-26aug12") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XNZMQW0XX2",
"slug": "kxairfarecpi-26aug12",
"question": "Will the US airline fares Consumer Price Index increase for July?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-airline-fares",
"cpi-inflation",
"economic-data",
"july-2026",
"consumer-prices"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5062,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "FRED series CUSR0000SETG01: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}