CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the US airline fares Consumer Price Index increase for July? [ resolved 2026-08-12 ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 19 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
> 304 2026-08-12 100.0%
$156
A KXAIRFARECPI…304
> 305 2026-08-12 100.0%
$297
A KXAIRFARECPI…305
> 306 2026-08-12 100.0%
$898
A KXAIRFARECPI…306
> 307 2026-08-12 100.0%
$1.2K
A KXAIRFARECPI…307
> 308 2026-08-12 100.0%
$353
A KXAIRFARECPI…308
> 309 2026-08-12 100.0%
$1.3K
A KXAIRFARECPI…309
> 310 2026-08-12 100.0%
$839
A KXAIRFARECPI…310
> 311 2026-08-12 100.0%
$448
A KXAIRFARECPI…311
> 312 2026-08-12 100.0%
$3 $385
A KXAIRFARECPI…312
> 313 2026-08-12 100.0%
$571
A KXAIRFARECPI…313
> 314 2026-08-12 100.0%
$336
A KXAIRFARECPI…314
> 315 2026-08-12 0.0%
$282
A KXAIRFARECPI…315
> 316 2026-08-12 0.0%
$146
A KXAIRFARECPI…316
> 317 2026-08-12 0.0%
$179
A KXAIRFARECPI…317
> 318 2026-08-12 0.0%
$91
A KXAIRFARECPI…318
> 319 2026-08-12 0.0%
A KXAIRFARECPI…319
> 320 2026-08-12 0.0%
$0
A KXAIRFARECPI…320
> 321 2026-08-12 0.0%
$0
A KXAIRFARECPI…321
> 322 2026-08-12 0.0%
$8
A KXAIRFARECPI…322
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 19 markets · share this text
If the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 is above 304ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses FRED series CUSR0000SETG01: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average, which is published monthly and is seasonally adjusted.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation"
sources (3) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation venue-listed Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index committed source FRED series CUSR0000SETG01: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average from rules text
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 304ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 305ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 306ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 307ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 308ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 309ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 310ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 311ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 312ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 313ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
YES Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 314ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 100%
NO Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 315ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 0%
NO Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 316ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 0%
NO Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 317ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 0%
NO Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 318ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 0%
NO Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 319? kalshi 2026-08-12 0%
NO Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 320? kalshi 2026-08-12 0%
NO Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 321ㅤ? kalshi 2026-08-12 0%
NO Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 322? kalshi 2026-08-12 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (19 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxairfarecpi-26aug12/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxairfarecpi-26aug12
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxairfarecpi-26aug12")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XNZMQW0XX2",
  "slug": "kxairfarecpi-26aug12",
  "question": "Will the US airline fares Consumer Price Index increase for July?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-inflation",
    "airline-fares",
    "cpi-index",
    "2026",
    "economic-data"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 19,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 7511,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "FRED series CUSR0000SETG01: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →