Will AI capabilities grow before July? [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1525 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $359 | $4.9K | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1525 | ||
| 1550 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $254 | $1.8K | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1550 | ||
| 1575 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $13 | $744 | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1575 | ||
| 1600 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $27 | $271 | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1600 | ||
| 1625 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $1 | $110 | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1625 | ||
| 1650 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $52 | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1650 | ||
| 1675 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $54 | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1675 | ||
| 1700 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $92 | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1700 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If an AI model has a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) venue-listed
- LMSYS leaderboard source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026 | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026 | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026 | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026 | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026 | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jul 1, 2026 | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1675 before Jul 1, 2026 | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1700 before Jul 1, 2026 | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (8 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaispike-26b/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaispike-26b |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaispike-26b") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
"slug": "kxaispike-26b",
"question": "Will AI capabilities grow before July?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-capability",
"benchmark-performance",
"near-term-ai",
"2026",
"technology-milestone"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8036,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "LMSYS leaderboard",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}