Will there be significant AI capability growth this year? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2027-01 ]
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1520 | 2026-10-01 | 100.0% | $22 | $5.9K | C | KXAISPIKE-27B-1520 | ||
| 1530 | 2026-10-01 | 100.0% | $10 | $1.6K | C | KXAISPIKE-27B-1530 | ||
| 1540 | 2027-01-01 | 28.0% | — | $504 | C | KXAISPIKE-27B-1540 | ||
| 1550 | 2027-01-01 | 27.0% | $11 | $11K | C | KXAISPIKE-27-1550 | ||
| 1600 | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $912 | C | KXAISPIKE-27-1600 | ||
| 1650 | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $127 | C | KXAISPIKE-27-1650 | ||
| 1700 | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $53 | C | KXAISPIKE-27-1700 | ||
| 1750 | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $99 | C | KXAISPIKE-27-1750 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXAISPIKE, notice id LLM-OTHER2):
**Important information**: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]
If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027 | kalshi | 2026-10-01 | 100% |
| YES | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 | kalshi | 2026-10-01 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- AI 1530 benchmark by Jan 1 stays near certain 99% · $56K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 99% chance some AI model clears the 1530 benchmark before 2027, near-certain consensus.
- 24h volume of $55K is 86% of all-time traded, signaling a concentrated, late-cycle flush of remaining doubt.
- Fresh attention likely driven by a recent model release or benchmark result bringing the threshold into immediate reach.
- Resolves Jan 1, 2027, three months out; residual 1% represents pure tail risk on a surprise freeze.
- AI 1520 benchmark by Jan 1 priced as all but done 99% · $38K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 99% probability that some AI model scores at least 1520 before 2027, effectively resolved in the market.
- 24h volume of $37K is 26% of all-time, a notable single-session print on a contract the market already treats as settled.
- The 1520 threshold is the softer cousin of Spike 0; fresh volume here likely reflects arbitrage or portfolio positioning.
- Resolves Jan 1, 2027; the 1% residual is noise, not a real signal of doubt.
- Heavy trading holds the 1530 AI benchmark at near-certainty 97% · $23K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 1530 benchmark score before Jan 1, 2027 at 97%, near-certain resolution yes.
- 72% of all-time contract volume ($22K of $31K lifetime) cleared in a single 24h window.
- Surge likely reflects a published or leaked score result pushing residual doubters to close short positions.
- Resolves Jan 1, 2027; at 97% the remaining 3% is pure tail risk on a scoring dispute or delay.
- AI Arena 1520 score by year-end stays a heavy favorite 92% · $30K 24h
- Kalshi prices the milestone at 92%, market strongly expects at least one model to clear 1520 before 2027.
- 24h volume of $30K equals 67% of all-time flow, an extraordinary single-session concentration.
- Fresh model releases or benchmark announcements in late 2026 appear to be drawing capital to this contract.
- Resolves if any AI model posts a 1520 Overall Arena Score before January 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaispike-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaispike-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaispike-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0MCTG7XWR4",
"slug": "kxaispike-27",
"question": "Will there be significant AI capability growth this year?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-capability",
"artificial-intelligence",
"benchmark-performance",
"2027",
"technology-frontier"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20307,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "LMSYS leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}