Will significant advances in AI capabilities occur in 2024? [ resolves 2027-01-02 (204D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1550 | 2027-01-02 | 34.0% | — | $9.9K | A | KXAISPIKE-27-1550 | ||
| 1600 | 2027-01-02 | 18.0% | $19 | $2.2K | A | KXAISPIKE-27-1600 | ||
| 1650 | 2027-01-02 | 9.0% | — | $286 | A | KXAISPIKE-27-1650 | ||
| 1700 | 2027-01-02 | 9.0% | — | $92 | A | KXAISPIKE-27-1700 | ||
| 1750 | 2027-01-02 | 10.0% | — | $162 | A | KXAISPIKE-27-1750 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaispike-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaispike-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaispike-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-12. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0MCTG7XWR4",
"slug": "kxaispike-27",
"question": "Will significant advances in AI capabilities occur in 2024?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-capabilities",
"ai-benchmarks",
"machine-learning",
"technology-2027",
"model-performance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12700,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}