Will the AK-AL primary advance by the next general election? [ resolves 2027-08-18 (391D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Begich | 2027-08-18 | 99.0% | — | $112 | C | KXAKPRIMARY-…BEG | ||
| Bill Hill | 2027-08-18 | 97.0% | $2 | $2.1K | C | KXAKPRIMARY-…HIL | ||
| Matthew Schultz | 2027-08-18 | 68.0% | — | $2.1K | C | KXAKPRIMARY-…SCH | ||
| John Brendan Williams | 2027-08-18 | 62.0% | — | $599 | C | KXAKPRIMARY-…WIL | ||
| Matthew Williams | 2027-08-18 | 37.0% | — | $352 | C | KXAKPRIMARY-…WIL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Nicholas Begich advances in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxakprimary-26may19/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxakprimary-26may19 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxakprimary-26may19") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FD44Z12859",
"slug": "kxakprimary-26may19",
"question": "Will the AK-AL primary advance by the next general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"alaska-election",
"primary-runoff",
"us-politics",
"2028",
"top-four-primary"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5217,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}