Will the AK-AL primary advance by the next general election? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-08 ]
Will Matthew Williams qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brendan Williams | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $2 | $610 | C | KXAKPRIMARY-…WIL | ||
| Nicholas Begich | 2027-08-18 | 99.0% | — | $112 | C | KXAKPRIMARY-…BEG | ||
| Bill Hill | 2027-08-18 | 97.0% | — | $2.4K | C | KXAKPRIMARY-…HIL | ||
| Matthew Schultz | 2027-08-18 | 80.0% | $241 | $2.7K | C | KXAKPRIMARY-…SCH | ||
| Matthew Williams | 2027-08-18 | 37.0% | — | $352 | C | KXAKPRIMARY-…WIL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Nicholas Begich advances in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will John Brendan Williams qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-31 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Traders back Williams into Alaska's top-four runoff 89% · $156K 24h
- 89% implies near-certainty Williams clears the top-four threshold in Alaska's ranked-choice primary.
- 24h volume of $156K is 83% of all-time handle, the bulk of lifetime activity landed today.
- Late-primary attention spike suggests fresh information or filing deadline clarification driving conviction.
- Resolves on official Alaska Division of Elections certification of top-four qualifiers.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxakprimary-26may19/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxakprimary-26may19 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxakprimary-26may19") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FD44Z12859",
"slug": "kxakprimary-26may19",
"question": "Will the AK-AL primary advance by the next general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"alaska-election",
"primary-runoff",
"us-politics",
"2028",
"top-four-primary"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6226,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}