Alaska Air Group passenger load factor, October 2026 [ resolves 2027-02-19 (199D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 82% | 2027-02-19 | 99.0% | — | $4.2K | C | KXALK-26OCTP…2.0 | ||
| ≥ 82.5% | 2027-02-19 | 99.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXALK-26OCTP…2.5 | ||
| ≥ 83% | 2027-02-19 | 93.0% | — | $513 | C | KXALK-26OCTP…3.0 | ||
| ≥ 83.5% | 2027-02-19 | 89.0% | — | $1.9K | C | KXALK-26OCTP…3.5 | ||
| ≥ 84% | 2027-02-19 | 75.0% | $295 | $4.3K | C | KXALK-26OCTP…4.0 | ||
| ≥ 84.5% | 2027-02-19 | 49.0% | $45 | $2.2K | C | KXALK-26OCTP…4.5 | ||
| ≥ 85% | 2027-02-19 | 33.0% | — | $297 | C | KXALK-26OCTP…5.0 | ||
| ≥ 85.5% | 2027-02-19 | 14.0% | — | $20 | C | KXALK-26OCTP…5.5 | ||
| ≥ 86% | 2027-02-19 | 7.0% | — | $46 | C | KXALK-26OCTP…6.0 | ||
| ≥ 86.5% | 2027-02-19 | 5.0% | — | $52 | C | KXALK-26OCTP…6.5 | ||
| ≥ 87% | 2027-02-19 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXALK-26OCTP…7.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fiscal.ai | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above 82.0% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fiscal.ai" sources (1) · single authority
- Fiscal.ai source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxalk-26octplf/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxalk-26octplf |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxalk-26octplf") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-44S6K6XSH8",
"slug": "kxalk-26octplf",
"question": "Alaska Air Group passenger load factor, October 2026",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"alaska-air",
"passenger-load-factor",
"q3-2026",
"airline-operations",
"financial-metrics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14584,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fiscal.ai",
"url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}