Will the Ann Arbor Democratic mayoral primary be held before August 4, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (12D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 2 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Taylor · Who will win the 2026 Ann Arbor Democratic mayoral primary? | 2026-08-04 | 66.0% | $10 | $4.2K | A | KXANNARBORMA…TAY | ||
| Yousef Rabhi · Who will win the 2026 Ann Arbor Democratic mayoral primary? | 2026-08-04 | 42.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXANNARBORMA…RAB |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | relevant county clerk or board of elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Christopher Taylor wins the 2026 Ann Arbor Democratic mayoral primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections" sources (7) · stated precedence rule
- relevant county clerk or board of elections source of record venue-listed
- Attorney General of the United States venue-listed
- relevant city/municipal clerk venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer venue-listed
- the Federal Election Commission venue-listed
- state board of elections or canvassing board venue-listed
- The Source Agencies are venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxannarbormayord-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxannarbormayord-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxannarbormayord-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5STKPS9WD4",
"slug": "kxannarbormayord-26",
"question": "Will the Ann Arbor Democratic mayoral primary be held before August 4, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2027-election",
"ann-arbor-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"mayoral-race",
"michigan-local"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5819,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Attorney General of the United States",
"url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Election Commission",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}