Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon? [ resolves 2028-01-01 (544D) ]
Will Anthropic PBC win Anthropic PBC v. U.S. Department of War et al.?
kalshi: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic PBC win Anthropic PBC v. U.S. Department of War et al. | 2028-01-01 | 46.0% | $8 | $7.6K | B | KXANTHROPICDOD-28 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Anthropic PBC has achieved the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of Anthropic PBC v. U.S. Department of War et al. (originally filed in the U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), then the market resolves to Yes.
Anthropic PBC achieves the superior outcome through the following exclusive hierarchy:
1. **Net Monetary Recovery (Highest Priority):** Anthropic PBC achieves the superior outcome if they receive a larger net monetary award than all opposing parties combined (after offsetting any awards against Anthropic PBC). Attorney's fees and costs are excluded.
2. **Substantive Legal Victory (Second Priority):** If no net monetary advantage exists, Anthropic PBC achieves the superior outcome if they prevail on claims seeking the largest dollar amount of relief in their original pleadings, or if relief amounts are equal, on the greater number of primary causes of action.
3. **Case Termination Advantage (Third Priority):** If the case terminates without substantive judgment, Anthropic PBC achieves the superior outcome if (as defendant) all claims are dismissed with prejudice, or (as plaintiff) opposing parties voluntarily dismiss all claims with prejudice. All other termination scenarios result in no superior outcome for any party.
**Settlements:** Superior outcome if net payment flows to Anthropic PBC; no superior outcome if payment flows from Anthropic PBC; no party achieves superior outcome if terms are sealed or undisclosed.
**Key exclusions:** Applies only to trial-level resolution — specifically excludes all appeals processes. Procedural victories alone do not constitute superior outcomes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (22) · stated precedence rule
- ABC venue-listed
- The Source Agencies are venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- court clerk's office for judicial body venue-listed
- Law360 venue-listed
- STAT News venue-listed
- PACER venue-listed
- Bloomberg Law Court Filings venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Legal Monitor Worldwide venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- Westlaw Court Records venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: judicial body official records and electronic filing systems venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxanthropicdod-28/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxanthropicdod-28 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxanthropicdod-28") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SVCCTJBK88",
"slug": "kxanthropicdod-28",
"question": "Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"anthropic-lawsuit",
"us-military-policy",
"tech-regulation",
"corporate-litigation",
"2028"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7570,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "judicial body official records and electronic filing systems",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "court clerk's office for judicial body",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Law360",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "STAT News",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "PACER",
"url": "https://pacer.uscourts.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg Law Court Filings",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Legal Monitor Worldwide",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Westlaw Court Records",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: judicial body official records and electronic filing systems",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}