Which bank will lead Anthropic's initial public offering? [ resolves 2028-01-01 (527D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 2028-01-01 | 68.0% | $0 | $4.6K | A | KXANTHROPICL…GSX | ||
| Morgan Stanley | 2028-01-01 | 35.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXANTHROPICL…MSX | ||
| JPMorgan Chase | 2028-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $12 | A | KXANTHROPICL…PMX | ||
| Bank of America | 2028-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $10 | A | KXANTHROPICL…OAX | ||
| Citigroup | 2028-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $4 | A | KXANTHROPICL…TIX | ||
| No Listed Underwriter | 2028-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $5 | A | KXANTHROPICL…LOX |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | SEC EDGAR database filings | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Goldman Sachs serves as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two or more underwriters are presented on the cover of the final prospectus as jointly occupying the lead-left position, such that no single underwriter is uppermost-and-leftmost (for example, two names sharing equal top billing), then each such underwriter's outcome resolves to $1/(the number of tied underwriters), rounded down, for “Yes”, and “No” will be paid $1 minus the Yes value.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "SEC EDGAR database filings" sources (1) · single authority
- SEC EDGAR database filings source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G8Q9093H77",
"slug": "kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b",
"question": "Which bank will lead Anthropic's initial public offering?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"anthropic-ipo",
"investment-banking",
"lead-underwriter",
"2028",
"financial-services"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6383,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "SEC EDGAR database filings",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "SEC EDGAR database filings",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "SEC EDGAR database filings",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}