Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026? [ resolves 2027-11-02 (455D) ]
Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 0 | 2027-11-02 | 48.0% | $48 | $6.1K | C | KXANYDEMWINT…V03 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Source Agencies are | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Democrats win the election for any statewide office in Texas (including U.S. Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller of Public Accounts, Commissioner of General Land Office, Commissioner of Agriculture, Railroad Commissioner, any seat on the Texas Supreme Court, any seat on Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, and any other office that is voted on by all counties in Texas) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market uses ELECTION to determine election winners and is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Source Agencies are" sources (2)
recent wire items
- Democrats winning any Texas statewide race in 2026 holds near 50% Kalshi 60%
- Kalshi prices a 60% probability that Democrats win at least one statewide election in Texas in 2026.
- The data center opposition narrative gives Democrats a tangible local issue; the market has already priced Democrats as slight favorites to break through statewide.
- A 60% reading is not a slam dunk, the market is pricing genuine uncertainty, consistent with Texas remaining structurally Republican at the statewide level.
- Resolves via designated source agencies; traders should note that 'any statewide election' is a broad bar, which may explain the above-50% pricing even without a clear leading Democratic candidate.
- Democrats winning any Texas statewide race stays near 50% Kalshi 64%
- Kalshi prices Democrats winning at least one Texas statewide election in 2026 at 64%, a moderate lean.
- The data center backlash narrative driving Democratic optimism in Texas is consistent with Kalshi's above-50% reading, though the market has not moved to a heavy-favorite stance.
- Texas has not sent a Democrat to statewide office in decades; the 64% price reflects the data-center-driven shift as a real but uncertain catalyst.
- Resolves via the source agencies designated as the official election certifiers for Texas statewide races.
- Democrats winning Texas statewide in 2026 holds near 64% Kalshi 64%
- Kalshi puts 64% odds on Democrats winning at least one statewide election in Texas in 2026, a historically rare outcome.
- Reporting describes Talarico consistently leading Paxton in polls two months out, with national forecasters calling Texas competitive, consistent with the above-50% pricing.
- A 64% read suggests the market sees Talarico's lead as real but not dominant, reflecting Texas's long Republican lean and the race's remaining uncertainty.
- Resolves via Texas state government certification; the question requires at least one Democratic statewide win, so a single Senate upset is sufficient.
- Democrats winning a statewide Texas race priced above 50 percent Kalshi 64%
- Kalshi prices a 64% chance Democrats win at least one statewide election in Texas in 2026.
- News reporting describes Texas as 'uncharted territory,' with Talarico leading Paxton in polls; the 64% Kalshi price is consistent with that framing.
- A Polymarket contract on Republicans retaining House control nationally sits at 93%, suggesting Texas Democratic gains are seen as isolated rather than part of a broader wave.
- Resolves via the named source agencies as the official electoral authority for Texas statewide results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxanydemwintexas-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxanydemwintexas-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxanydemwintexas-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NQQNC9S0P9",
"slug": "kxanydemwintexas-26nov03",
"question": "Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"texas-politics",
"2026-elections",
"statewide-races",
"democrat-performance",
"binary-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6068,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 77,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Source Agencies are",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ELECTION",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}