Will Trump's approval rating be above 50% on July 24, 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-24 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 40.2 | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $805 | $3.1K | C | KXAPRPOTUS-2…0.2 | ||
| Between 40.2 and 40.4 | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $467 | $968 | C | KXAPRPOTUS-2…0.3 | ||
| Between 40.5 and 40.7 | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $7.5K | $11K | C | KXAPRPOTUS-2…0.6 | ||
| Between 40.8 and 41.0 | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $6.0K | $17K | C | KXAPRPOTUS-2…0.9 | ||
| Between 41.1 and 41.3 | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $256 | $538 | C | KXAPRPOTUS-2…1.2 | ||
| Between 41.4 and 41.6 | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $114 | $228 | C | KXAPRPOTUS-2…1.5 | ||
| Between 41.7 and 41.9 | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $76 | $218 | C | KXAPRPOTUS-2…1.8 | ||
| > 41.9 | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $73 | $244 | C | KXAPRPOTUS-2…1.9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | RealClearPolitics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the President's approval rating is below 40.2% at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 24, 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "RealClearPolitics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- RealClearPolitics source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be below 40.2 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| YES | Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 100% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be between 41.4 and 41.6 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be between 41.7 and 41.9 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be above 41.9 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaprpotus-26jul24/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaprpotus-26jul24 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaprpotus-26jul24") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LJV7GQKF92",
"slug": "kxaprpotus-26jul24",
"question": "Will Trump's approval rating be above 50% on July 24, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"approval-rating",
"trump",
"2026",
"polling-aggregate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 32596,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "RealClearPolitics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "RealClearPolitics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "RealClearPolitics",
"url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}