Will Trump's approval rating be above 50% on June 5, 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-05 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 39.0 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | $74 | $278 | A | KXAPRPOTUS-2…9.0 | ||
| Between 39.0 and 39.2 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | $7 | $58 | A | KXAPRPOTUS-2…9.1 | ||
| Between 39.3 and 39.5 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | $93 | $612 | A | KXAPRPOTUS-2…9.4 | ||
| Between 39.6 and 39.8 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | $236 | $1.3K | A | KXAPRPOTUS-2…9.7 | ||
| Between 39.9 and 40.1 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | $754 | $2.0K | A | KXAPRPOTUS-2…0.0 | ||
| Between 40.2 and 40.4 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $350 | $898 | A | KXAPRPOTUS-2…0.3 | ||
| Between 40.5 and 40.7 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | $225 | $516 | A | KXAPRPOTUS-2…0.6 | ||
| > 40.7 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | $53 | $134 | A | KXAPRPOTUS-2…0.7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | realclearpolling.com | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the President's approval rating is below 39.0% at 11:00 AM ET on June 05, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on June 05, 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "realclearpolling.com" ↗ resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be below 39.0 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be between 39.3 and 39.5 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be between 39.6 and 39.8 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be between 39.9 and 40.1 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the President's approval rating be above 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (8 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaprpotus-26jun05/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaprpotus-26jun05 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaprpotus-26jun05") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1GVBVX00V1",
"slug": "kxaprpotus-26jun05",
"question": "Will Trump's approval rating be above 50% on June 5, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"approval-rating",
"trump",
"2026",
"realclearpolitics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5784,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "realclearpolling.com",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}