Gemini 3.5 Pro LM Arena debut score [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score | 2027-01-01 | 70.0% | $280 | $2.1K | A | KXARENASCORE…490 | ||
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score | 2027-01-01 | 40.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXARENASCORE…495 | ||
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score | 2027-01-01 | 29.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXARENASCORE…500 | ||
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $224 | A | KXARENASCORE…505 | ||
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $180 | A | KXARENASCORE…510 | ||
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $99 | A | KXARENASCORE…515 | ||
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $83 | A | KXARENASCORE…520 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores above 1490 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Any Gemini model added to the leaderboard labeled as "Gemini 3.5 Pro" or greater will qualify. If multiple qualifying models are added, the highest scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added following the initial qualifying model will not count.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) source of record venue-listed
- Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxarenascore-gemi35p/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxarenascore-gemi35p |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxarenascore-gemi35p") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XTQC5BVSH6",
"slug": "kxarenascore-gemi35p",
"question": "Gemini 3.5 Pro LM Arena debut score",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"gemini-3-5-pro",
"ai-benchmarks",
"arena-leaderboard",
"model-performance",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6393,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}