Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 25 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Comey | 2027-01-01 | 99.4% | — | $1.13M | C | KXARREST-27J…COM | ||
| John Brennan | 2027-01-01 | 31.0% | — | $42K | A | KXARREST-27J…BRE | ||
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | — | $2.7K | A | KXARREST-27J…ZAP | ||
| Mahmoud Khalil | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXARREST-27J…KHA | ||
| Anthony Fauci | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $225 | $15K | A | KXARREST-27J…FAU | ||
| James Clapper | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $172 | $8.1K | A | KXARREST-27J…CLA | ||
| Letitia James | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $35 | $22K | A | KXARREST-27J…JAM | ||
| Lee Jae Myung | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $59 | A | KXARREST-27J…JAE | ||
| Adam Schiff | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | $1 | $3.9K | A | KXARREST-27J…SCH | ||
| Brandon Johnson | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $281 | A | KXARREST-27J…JOH | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 2027-01-01 | 7.8% | — | $2.9K | A | KXARREST-27J…NEW | ||
| Kash Patel | 2027-01-01 | 7.7% | — | $438 | A | KXARREST-27J…PAT | ||
| Loretta Lynch | 2027-01-01 | 7.2% | — | $563 | A | KXARREST-27J…LYN | ||
| Lee Jun-seok | 2027-01-01 | 7.1% | — | $237 | A | KXARREST-27J…JUN | ||
| Bill Clinton | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $4 | $2.7K | A | KXARREST-27J…LIN | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $122 | $10K | A | KXARREST-27J…LIN | ||
| Susan Rice | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $873 | A | KXARREST-27J…RIC | ||
| Lisa Cook | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $1 | $2.0K | A | KXARREST-27J…COO | ||
| Tom Homan | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $530 | A | KXARREST-27J…HOM | ||
| John Kerry | 2027-01-01 | 5.9% | — | $388 | A | KXARREST-27J…KER | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $412 | A | KXARREST-27J…NET | ||
| Candace Owens | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $103 | A | KXARREST-27J…OWE | ||
| Barack Obama | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $28 | $9.5K | A | KXARREST-27JAN-BOM | ||
| Joe Biden | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $246 | A | KXARREST-27J…BID | ||
| Pam Bondi | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $357 | A | KXARREST-27J…BON |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred" sources (13) · single authority
law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred committed source Fox News venue-listed Semafor venue-listed The Information venue-listed CNBC venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed CNN venue-listed Politico venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed Reuters venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxarrest-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxarrest-27jan |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxarrest-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T101LW9G50",
"slug": "kxarrest-27jan",
"question": "Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"arrest-2026",
"political-figure",
"us-politics",
"criminal-justice",
"prediction-market"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 25,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1258885,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}