Will Netanyahu be arrested by 2026? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2027-01 ]
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, "arrested" means:
Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
Being formally booked or processed following detention
The following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion:
Benjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station
Benjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency
Benjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and formally arrested
The following scenarios would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
Benjamin Netanyahu being briefly detained but not arrested
Benjamin Netanyahu being questioned or interviewed without arrest
Benjamin Netanyahu being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody
Benjamin Netanyahu being named in an indictment without arrest
Benjamin Netanyahu being arrested after Oct 1, 2026
Protective custody that is not an arrest
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred" sources (13) · single authority
- law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred source of record venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- CNBC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxarrestnetanyahu-28jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxarrestnetanyahu-28jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxarrestnetanyahu-28jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NP3B38P916",
"slug": "kxarrestnetanyahu-28jan01",
"question": "Will Netanyahu be arrested by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"israel-politics",
"legal-proceedings",
"2026",
"arrest-indictment",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5194,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 69,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}