Will the Democratic nominee for Arizona's 4th congressional district be determined by the 2026 election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Greg Stanton wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 AZ-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
- Republican Party venue-listed
- Democratic Party source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Greg Stanton stacks as dominant AZ-04 Democratic nominee 94% · $12K 24h
- Contract at 94%, Kalshi capital strongly backs Stanton as the Democratic standard-bearer in AZ-04.
- 24h volume $12.4K is 29% of all-time; fresh session activity suggests a filing or endorsement catalyst.
- Primary field consolidation or a rival's withdrawal would explain renewed high-conviction accumulation.
- Resolves at primary conclusion; 6% residual covers late-entry or surprise challenger scenarios.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxazprimary-04d26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxazprimary-04d26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxazprimary-04d26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QF3YQZRMN1",
"slug": "kxazprimary-04d26",
"question": "Will the Democratic nominee for Arizona's 4th congressional district be determined by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"arizona",
"democratic-primary",
"2028-election",
"house-races"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16421,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 77,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}