Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic | 2027-02-01 | 45.0% | $2.0K | $878K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-DD | ||
| Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican | 2027-02-01 | 39.0% | $776 | $679K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-DR | ||
| Republican AND Senate Control be Republican | 2027-02-01 | 15.0% | $8.2K | $519K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-RR | ||
| Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic | 2027-02-01 | 1.5% | $1 | $25K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-RD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: House Control uses CONTROL, Senate Control uses CONTROL.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- Republicans retaining at least one chamber stays above 50% Kalshi 65%
- Kalshi puts 65% odds on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms, resolved via Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Despite Trump's 33% approval rating and polling that shows a potential Democratic wave, the Kalshi contract still favors Republicans holding at least one chamber.
- The companion Kalshi contract on the Democratic Party winning the House (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) sits at 91%, implying the market sees the House as likely flipping while the Senate remains competitive.
- Resolution requires official congressional composition data post-election; the 65% vs 91% House-flip gap suggests the Senate is where market consensus sees Republican survival most likely.
- Republicans holding at least one chamber stays near 63 percent Kalshi 63%
- The Kalshi prediction market puts 63% odds on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.
- WSJ's account of White House turmoil and hot inflation data frames the political headwind, yet the market still favors GOP retention of at least one chamber.
- The companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610) puts 52% odds on a Democratic blue tsunami, creating an apparent tension resolved only if Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House.
- Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an unusual sourcing choice; traders should confirm the named resolver matches the actual electoral authority before the contract matures.
- Republicans holding at least one chamber stays above 50 percent Kalshi 63%
- Kalshi puts 63% probability on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.
- The record-low Trump approval headline is bearish for GOP chances, yet the Kalshi prediction market still prices Republicans as the modest favorite to hold at least one chamber.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) puts 90% on Democrats winning the House, implying the market sees a split Congress as the most likely outcome, with Republicans favored to retain the Senate.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics classification, per the stated source; actual chamber control determined by certified election results.
- Republicans holding at least one chamber after midterms stays favored Kalshi 62%
- Kalshi prices 62% odds that Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms, resolving via Bureau of Labor Statistics official congressional records.
- Trump's record-low 33% approval rating in the Washington Post poll is a bearish signal for Republicans, yet the market still leans toward GOP retaining at least one chamber.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) prices 90% odds that Democrats win the House, implying the market reconciles both by expecting a split outcome with Republicans holding the Senate.
- Resolves via Library of Congress official certification of congressional composition after the November 2026 election results are certified.
- Republicans holding at least one chamber stays favored near 62 percent Kalshi 62%
- Kalshi prices a 62% probability that Republicans will control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.
- Trump's record-low 33% approval in the Washington Post poll is a bearish signal for Republicans, yet the Kalshi contract still favors GOP retaining at least one chamber.
- A companion Kalshi contract prices a 90% probability that Democrats win the US House, implying markets expect a split outcome: Democrats take the House, Republicans keep the Senate.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics certification of congressional results; the 62% GOP figure reflects the structural Senate map advantage, not presidential approval.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbalancepowercombo-27feb") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
"slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
"question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms",
"congress-control",
"house-senate",
"2026-elections",
"balance-of-power"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2101223,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}