Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic | 2027-02-01 | 45.0% | $2.0K | $878K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-DD | ||
| Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican | 2027-02-01 | 39.0% | $776 | $679K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-DR | ||
| Republican AND Senate Control be Republican | 2027-02-01 | 15.0% | $8.2K | $519K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-RR | ||
| Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic | 2027-02-01 | 1.5% | $1 | $25K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-RD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: House Control uses CONTROL, Senate Control uses CONTROL.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- Republican control of at least one chamber after midterms near 50 percent Kalshi 47%
- Kalshi prices 47% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms, resolving via the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Republican investigative activity targeting labor unions is a classic pre-midterm mobilization tactic, but the nearly even 47% odds reflect a genuinely competitive environment.
- The companion Kalshi contract on a Democratic blue wave sits at 76%, suggesting markets lean toward Democratic gains but stop short of pricing a full Republican collapse.
- The gap between 47% GOP holding one chamber and 76% blue wave implies markets see meaningful probability of Democrats sweeping both chambers.
- GOP holding Congress after midterms stays below 50 percent Kalshi 43%
- Kalshi prices Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms at 43%.
- The Senate's passage of a funding bill removes a shutdown risk that could have further damaged the GOP brand, but the market still puts odds below 50%.
- A separate Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats sits at 54%, suggesting mixed signals across different electoral contests.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics as named source, though actual resolution will hinge on certified election results from November 2026.
- Republicans holding Congress after midterms stays below 50% Kalshi 43%
- Kalshi prices Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms at 43%, a slight minority probability.
- Senate Republicans averting a shutdown is a defensive political win, but the market at 43% suggests it is not enough to shift the chamber-control outlook.
- The Todd Blanche attorney general confirmation by a single 50-49 vote underscores thin Republican Senate margins heading into November.
- Kalshi's Michigan same-party governor-senator outcome at 56% (CM-EVT-5BB4SFW2V1) signals Democrats are favored in a key swing-state bellwether.
- Republican Congress control after 2026 midterms holds below 50% Kalshi 42%
- Kalshi contract puts only 42% odds on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.
- The below-50% pricing is consistent with the narrative of Trump political headwinds, though the market is not strongly pricing a Democratic sweep.
- El-Sayed's progressive primary win in Michigan adds a data point on Democratic enthusiasm in a key battleground state.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics, note: this appears to be an unusual resolution source for an election contract; traders should verify the resolution mechanic carefully.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbalancepowercombo-27feb") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
"slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
"question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms",
"congress-control",
"house-senate",
"2026-elections",
"balance-of-power"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2101223,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}