Will the Republicans control both chambers of Congress after the 2026 Midterms? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (210D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic | 2027-02-01 | 41.0% | $2.7K | $571K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-DD | ||
| Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican | 2027-02-01 | 37.0% | $1.7K | $458K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-DR | ||
| Republican AND Senate Control be Republican | 2027-02-01 | 22.0% | $4.3K | $568K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-RR | ||
| Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic | 2027-02-01 | 1.8% | $215 | $24K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-RD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: House Control uses CONTROL, Senate Control uses CONTROL.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbalancepowercombo-27feb") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
"slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
"question": "Will the Republicans control both chambers of Congress after the 2026 Midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms",
"congress-control",
"legislative-balance",
"2027-resolution",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1620883,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}