Will U.S. oil production per day in 2026 reach a specified level? [ resolves 2027-01-07 (185D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year | 2027-01-07 | 75.0% | $125 | $2.1K | C | KXBARRELS-26-13.75 | ||
| How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year | 2027-01-07 | 67.0% | $20 | $944 | C | KXBARRELS-26-13.80 | ||
| How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year | 2027-01-07 | 43.0% | $225 | $1.7K | C | KXBARRELS-26-13.90 | ||
| How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year | 2027-01-07 | 14.0% | — | $442 | C | KXBARRELS-26-14.00 | ||
| How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year | 2027-01-07 | 22.0% | — | $540 | C | KXBARRELS-26-14.10 | ||
| How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year | 2027-01-07 | 15.0% | $25 | $432 | C | KXBARRELS-26-14.25 | ||
| How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year | 2027-01-07 | 14.0% | $31 | $745 | C | KXBARRELS-26-14.40 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the U.S. produces at least 13.75 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (14) · single authority
- ABC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- EIA source of record venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbarrels-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbarrels-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbarrels-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P3HZWM68C0",
"slug": "kxbarrels-26",
"question": "Will U.S. oil production per day in 2026 reach a specified level?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"energy-production",
"us-economy",
"oil-commodities",
"annual-aggregate",
"2026-metric"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6829,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "EIA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "EIA",
"url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}